Foreign Policy In Focus

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FPIF is a think tank for research, analysis, and action that brings together scholars, advocates, and activists who strive to make the United States a more responsible global partner. We are a project of the Institute for Policy Studies, a community of public scholars working for peace, justice, and the environment. FPIF.org Follow @fpif !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

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Ukrainian Unity Depends On…Bulgaria?!

Ukraine’s war with pro-Russian separatists is not only being decided in the battlefields of eastern Ukraine.

Oddly enough, the Ukrainian government’s recapture of Slavyansk and its advance on Donetsk were only made possible because of a decision of the Bulgarian government. The decision was to stop the ongoing construction of South Stream, a new gas pipeline that would have circumvented Ukraine to deliver Russian gas to energy-hungry Europe.

China, America, and a New Cold War in Africa?

Juba, South Sudan — Is this country the first hot battlefield in a new cold war? Is the conflict tearing this new nation apart actually a proxy fight between the world’s two top economic and military powers?

That’s the way South Sudan’s Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth tells it. After “midwifing” South Sudan into existence with billions of dollars in assistance, aid, infrastructure projects, and military support, the United States has watched China emerge as the major beneficiary of South Sudan’s oil reserves. As a result, Makuei claims, the United States and other Western powers have backed former vice president Riek Machar and his rebel forces in an effort to overthrow the country’s president, Salva Kiir. China, for its part, has played a conspicuous double game. Beijing has lined up behind Kiir, even as it publicly pushes both sides to find a diplomatic solution to a simmering civil war. It is sending peacekeepers as part of the U.N. mission even as it also arms Kiir’s forces with tens of millions of dollars worth of new weapons.

Iran: Is the Short Honeymoon of Media Freedom Over?

On July 31, a prominent Iranian journalist tweeted, “Saba’s mother has now joined Twitter.” Saba’s mother Akram Mohammadi, had just given an interview about her daughter Saba’s agonizing 65 days of pretrial detention at an unknown location. Unidentified security officials had arrested Saba Azarpaik, a Tehran-based journalist, on May 28.

A few hours later, the Twitter account linked to her posted this message: “Mr. Rouhani, you promised that our children would no longer be arrested for writing articles and reporting… So what happened?”

Obama: Into Africa

President Obama is definitely “into” Africa. As much as possible in a world riven by multiple crises, the president has made the continent a focus of his policymaking. Turning his own Kenyan heritage into a personal bridge to the region, he has visited Africa three times as president – in 2009, 2011, and 2013. He has touted his administration’s multi-billion initiatives such as Power Africa to bring electricity to millions of homes, a fellowship program for young African leaders, and the continuation of efforts to fight HIV-AIDS and other infectious diseases.

At a time when criticism is mounting about the way the president is handling the rest of the world, Africa is shaping up to be Obama’s major play for a legacy.

How Western Aid Bungled Syria’s Opposition & Paved the Way for ISIS

The takeover of large swaths of Iraq and Syria by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)—and the declaration of a new caliphate within this territory—has captured the attention of every media outlet, pundit, and politician with even a passing interest in Middle East affairs.

The reason for the emergence of ISIS remains hotly contested. Certainly, the Syrian regime’s willingness to employ the worst forms of brutality has created an environment in which ISIS has thrived. Also important has been the Sunni extremism born in the ashes of Iraq. “Moderate opposition forces,” for their part, have also failed to stem the tide of radical extremism.

Can the Hungarian Party “Can Politics Be Different” Live up to Its Name?

Every few years in East-Central Europe, a new political movement emerges that challenges not only the status quo but the very substance of the political system. Sometimes the movement targets the party patronage system. Sometimes it focuses on the corruption that enriches those who participate in governance. Sometimes it elevates a set of issues that the media or the political elite has ignored.

In Poland, Janusz Palikot created a movement that spoke to the libertarian values of a younger generation, mixing together market liberalism with the legalization of marijuana and support for LGBT rights. In Bulgaria, Volen Siderov created a right-wing populist movement that attacked vested interests and also blamed minorities for a variety of social ills.

A Bittersweet Victory for Srebrenica’s Survivors

Nineteen years ago, more than 8,000 Bosnian Muslim, or Bosniak, men and boys were massacred in the small mountain town of Srebrenica in Bosnia-Herzegovina. The genocide, perpetrated by Bosnian Serb forces under the command of General Ratko Mladic, is the worst to occur in Europe since World War II. Even more devastatingly, these men and boys were essentially handed over to their deaths by the very people entrusted to protect them.

During the Bosnian war, Srebrenica was declared a safe area under the protection of the United Nations (UN). A Dutch peacekeeping force, the Dutchbat, was assigned to the area to safeguard the thousands of Bosniaks seeking shelter in the enclave. Yet, General Mladic’s men outnumbered the peacekeepers and as Srebrenica fell, the Dutchbat turned over the Muslims who were under their protection. The Serb forces would later go on to kill the male inhabitants of the town.

Is Obama Really Adrift in the World?

For all the hands shaken and hamburgers eaten, President Obama has never quite shaken his reputation for detachment.

He is the “cool” president who doesn’t lose his temper even when he should. He is the former constitutional law professor who is too “academic” for the Oval Office. He uses his brain when he should be relying more on other body parts: guts, heart, cojones. He surrounds himself with a small coterie of friends and lacks the common touch.

The “Responsibility to Protect” Is Buried in Iraq

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/ISIS) is wreaking havoc in Iraq, committing atrocities and leaving death and destruction in its wake.

According to recent data from the United Nations, Iraq saw at least 1,571 civilian casualties with an additional 1,763 wounded in the month of June alone. Furthermore, there has been broad displacement of people, with numbers upwards of 600,000 since the beginning of June. More recently, concern has heightened over ISIL’s threat to the non-Muslim populations in Mosul, giving them an ultimatum to leave, convert to Islam, or pay a tax—if not, they risk execution. The threats have caused many civilians to flee.

Is Human Rights Watch Too Close to the U.S. Government?

In the realm of human rights advocacy, few organizations enjoy the influence commanded by Human Rights Watch (HRW).

With outposts and contacts all over world, the New York-based NGO enjoys a reputation for assiduously chronicling human rights abuses and leveraging its political clout to hold abusers to account. HRW experts routinely testify before Congress, and HRW scholars enjoy access to a range of media outlets—from the New York Times on down to Foreign Policy In Focus.

The organization employs many courageous and conscientious researchers, but critics say its influence may come at a cost. In recent months, some activists have charged the organization with having a “revolving door” relationship with the U.S. government, which they say gives it a blind spot for abuses that originate in Washington.

In Gaza, International Law Is Up in Flames

As Israel’s assault on the Gaza Strip rages on, ceasefires come and go. Most last just long enough for Palestinians to dig out the dead from beneath their collapsed houses, get the injured to overcrowded and under-resourced hospitals, and seek enough food and water to last through the next round of airstrikes.

“There is nothing left but stones,” Palestinian journalist Mohammed Omer quoted an old woman saying as she searched desperately through the rubble of what had been her home.

Casualties are soaring. By late July, Israel had killed more than 1,100 Palestinians — at least 73 percent of them civilians, including hundreds of children. Fifty-six Israelis, almost all of them soldiers, have died too.

The Contrails Have It: Iron Dome Is a Dud

Contrails, the wake of an aircraft usually created by water vapor in its exhaust. When you hear them mentioned these days, it’s usually an attempt to paints. But contrails happen to be key to the effectiveness ― or lack thereof ― of Israel’s iron dome mobile missile defense program.

Before continuing, if you’re anything like me, you wonder how U.S. missile defense, which (arecent test notwithstanding), has underperformed, while its Israeli counterpart, Iron Dome, has proven successful in stopping rockets launched at it by Hamas and other extremists. First, it behooves us to remember that those are rockets, not ballistic missiles, launched at Israel. Second, where’s the evidence that Iron Dome works anyway? At the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, editor Jon Mecklin frames the question.

Parsing the East Asian Powder Keg

The past six months have seen an incredible ratcheting up of tensions in the East and South China Seas, where the world’s three largest economies—China, the United States, and Japan—are caught up in an increasingly tangled web of territorial disputes, competing alliances, and historical grievances.

In February, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry assured Japan that the Americans would defend Japan in case of a military confrontation between Tokyo and Beijing. That same month, U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Jonathan Greenert said the Philippines could count on American support if there were a clash with China in the South China Sea.

A Promising but Precarious New Normal for the Young and Undocumented

Miguel Tapia was 13 when he found out what it means to be an undocumented American.

His parents explained that even though he had lived in Delaware since he was 2, he could not get a drivers license, apply for federal financial aid, or work legally in the United States.

Tapia found the news difficult to handle. The Mexican-born youth considered himself American, spoke accentless English, and saw his Delaware community as home.

When Diplomats Misbehave: Standoff Between Malaysia and New Zealand

Diplomatic immunity has long been a staple of good-faith diplomatic relations between governments in the modern state system. But although the privilege was designed to reduce the incidence of conflict between states, its abuse has often had the opposite effect.

The 2013 New York arrest of Indian diplomat Devyani Khobragade triggered a diplomatic rift between Washington and New Delhi. Charged with visa fraud and perjury, Khobragade was also accused of violating U.S. labor law by underpaying her housekeeper while making her work longer hours.

Let’s End the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Once and for All

It goes on…now in its twentieth day…Israel’s punishing military offensive against Gaza. Although it might happen – these conflicts have ended abruptly in the past – at the moment there is no ceasefire in site. The asymmetrical blow-for-blow continues. As many have pointed out, it is not a war, but an Israeli premeditated killing spree of Palestinian civilians. Nor is this the first time. Each day the casualty numbers mount. The published statistics are at best only “guestimates” with the real figures being significantly higher. How many more Palestinian civilians will be pulled from the rubble in the months after the fighting stops? How many bodies will never be found?

Behind Door Number Three in Iraq

Governments around the world—and their expensive yet oddly clueless intelligence agencies—are watching in shock and horror as militant Sunni radicals sweep from Syria into Iraq.

Yet today’s crisis was both predictable and predicted ever since President George W. Bush made it clear that he and whomever he could persuade to join him were going to invade Iraq. That decision was the first in a long train of bad decisions hurtling toward the situation we find ourselves in today. Indeed, the reality of this post-Saddam world can be traced all the way back to the first plans for a post-Saddam Iraq bruited about by U.S. policymakers—in early 2001.

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