Modi-fying the playing field
The move by the BJP to anoint Narendra Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate is a shrewd one. A calculated attack on the Congress, the move serves many purposes. While on the surface it seems like the right thing to do considering that the NaMo mantra has been chanted in choruses so often that it will keep ringing in our ears, the thought process behind such a move is commendable indeed.
I do not intend to argue that Narendra Modi is the best suited candidate for the PM post. All I’m trying to say here is that given the political landscape the BJP finds itself in the midst of, putting Modi on the pedestal and elevating him as PM candidate was indeed a move that was well calculated for the sound logical reasoning that backs the decision.
Around three months ago, the JD(U) decided to terminate their seventeen year old marriage with the BJP. Nitish Kumar’s reason for walking out of the NDA was clear and crisp – Narendra Modi as the PM candidate was unacceptable. That was three months ago, when Modi hadn’t even been declared the PM candidate yet. He was, however, given the responsibility of the Overall Campaign Coordinator for the BJP’s 2014 bid to the Lok Sabha. While it can be argued that delegating the responsibility to him was indeed a precursor of things to come (in the form of his being declared PM candidate), the JD(U) was still too early to walk out of the NDA. True, now the JD(U) can work backwards and say that it had always prophesised Modi’s candidature. However, it is also true that it is a prophecy that fulfils itself. While the NDA would have found some voices of dissent had JD(U) stayed with them, walking away from NDA, the JD(U) made the BJP that much more desperate. Apart from this, had the BJP not declared Modi as their BJP candidate after the JD(U) walked out on them, then they would have been foolish; the JD(U) wasn’t going to come back to NDA in any case. And even if they did, the image of uncertain wavering that the coalition partners would project to the public would have been catastrophic and the target of many Congress ridicules. So in my opinion, this is a classic case of causality and effect being confused to be each other; JD(U) walking out had more to do with Modi’s PM candidature than the other way around.
While the JD(U) was dissenting in the capacity of coalition partner, there was a person sulking within the ranks of the BJP itself. His name – Lal Krishna Advani. Advani didn’t want anybody- let alone Modi- to be declared as the PM candidate until after the string of elections scheduled for October-November, 2013. This is where the brilliance of Advani comes into play because this suggestion puts forward an alternative hypothesis. If Advani’s intentions were in fact to pre-empt Modi from getting the top job, he could not go the BJP Parliamentary Board without an alternative who is at least comparable to Modi in stature. By asking BJP to postpone the declaration of PM candidate till after the elections in Oct-Nov, Advani is asking for an entirely different thing. Had Madhya Pradesh done considerably well in the elections, then Shivraj Singh Chouhan could have been touted by Advani as the alternative to Modi. Whatever Advani’s own personal agenda is, waiting too long to declare the PM candidate would have been fatal for the BJP as more people would swing the BJP way if they saw a possible strong anti incumbency leader within the BJP ranks. Announcing the PM candidate after the four states’ elections would have definitely had much less of an impact than it does right now.
The third, and possibly the most important, reason for picking Modi – and picking him now- was that it could put the ball back in the Congress court. The Congress right now faces a dilemma that is in no way easy to solve; a political rhetoric will emerge and will be underscored by the BJP at every rally and interview from now on. If the Congress jumps ship and decides to name anyone as their candidate for PM, then it finds itself in hot soup. If that candidate is Manmohan Singh, then even more so. The BJP would be quick to point out the two terms of mismanagement and corruption ridden governance that would serve a severe blow to the Congress. The final blow will be delivered, in my prediction, if Modi (as he has already done) challenges Manmohan Singh to a live T.V. debate. The very contrast between them – with Modi charismatic and energetic and Manmohan Singh polite and looking slightly meek – would itself reinforce the dire need of a strong arm the helm in the people’s mind. Accepting such an invitation to debate would be disastrous for the Congress. Declining it and saying the Modi camp’s preference for the Presidential system of the U.S. is ridiculous would dig the hole deeper; “Then what was the point in Congress declaring a PM candidate at all?” people would quip.
The other way for the Congress to turn is Rahul Gandhi. Again, the BJP emerges the clear winner. Not only does Rahul Gandhi lack experience (he has never even had a Cabinet job), he also faces the burden of being from the Nehru-Gandhi family. The elections would then undergo a paradigm shift; “dynastic politics” would be screamed from rooftops all across India and real issues would be forgotten. And on a head-to-head collision, on basis of both achievements and experience, not to mention the momentum of oratory, Modi would easily thulp Rahul Gandhi. Rahul Gandhi claims to be a youth icon. And yet he has no twitter profile or facebook page. Modi on the other hand is much more inclusive when it comes to the youth; not only does he constantly tweet and have his own YouTube channel, his idea of holding a G+ hangout is the sort of thing that most netizens applaud as a commendable effort to reach out to the multitude of people.
Selecting Rahul Gandhi as the Congress choice would leave them vulnerable to another form of attack – misdirected criticism. The BJP only need say “Rahul as PM? What’s wrong with the one you have right now?” and it is check-mate. Now the Congress is left with no choice. Sonia Gandhi is definitely out of the picture as a PM candidate. As Subramaniyam Swamy would be quick to point out, the elections would become “Om vs Rome”. The only person who comes marginally close to giving any real challenge to Modi is P.Chidambaram. But the Congress doesn't seem to be tilting that way- and given the current economic crisis India is plagued with, Raguram Rajan would be a better pick.
So now the Congress is left with a Hobson’s choice – don’t declare a PM candidate at all. This, again, is open to all forms of attacks. If the image that BJP is even a bit more decisive than the Congress sets into people’s minds, then it is game over for Congress. Undoubtedly, the BJP will be pushing for Congress to name someone- just about anyone- as their PM candidate. The Congress’s refusal to do so will only be pilloried as their inability to find anyone suitable for the job or anyone to match up to Modi’s persona. So irrespective of whether or not the Congress picks a PM candidate, it is the BJP who has the most to gain.
I’m not arguing that Modi deserves to be PM or even BJP’s candidate for the same. I’m objectively stating that from the point of view of the BJP and RSS, picking Modi at this juncture was the right thing to do as it now gives them a huge upper hand. All Modi needs to do (and I predict he will in due course of time) is speak up about the 2002 Godhra riots and reassert his innocence. Right now, his silence is costing him dear. To pre-empt any Congress attacks on that front by coming out with a statement first will surely put the Congress in a bind. The best they can say is “Why say all this after so many years?” to which he can reply “Because although my conscience was always clear, you people can just not seem to let it go.”
Sure, Modi is polarizing. Yes, he is controversial in his own way. Certainly he has a character that is binary. But given the circumstances, the opportunity cost incurred by the BJP by not declaring him the PM candidate would just have been too great.
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