Maps, Monsters, aMazing!

[theshehulkproject]

Some D&D party is out there playing the coolest campaign ever.

[nonasuch]

I saw this when it was posted! Some highlights from the comments:

[prokopetz]

How do you calculate odds of successive rolls in "x of outcome 1 before y of outcome 2" scenarios? I'm specifically trying to figure out how much effect certain adjustments to the death save mechanic have on dnd5e's lethality, but it would also be useful for estimating things like montage tests in Draw Steel.

Fortunately, death saving throws are a lot simpler than the general case of "X of outcome 1 before Y of outcome 2" because (probability of outcome 1 + probability of outcome 2) equals 1; the presence of a "neither" case can throw a monkey into the wrench.

Since there's no "neither" outcome, the number of rolls you can possibly make is bounded; "three successes before three failures", for example, will never exceed five rolls, because after the fifth roll you're guaranteed to have at least three of one outcome or the other. That makes it possible to enumerate every possible sequence of outcomes:

SSS SSFS SFSS FSSS SSFFS SFSFS FSSFS SFFSS FSFSS FFSSS FFSSF FSFSF SFFSF FSSFF SFSFF SSFFF FFSF FSFF SFFF FFF

Let's assume that our S (success) result is rolling a 4 on 1d4, and our F (failure) result is rolling anything else. We can then work out the odds of each case, like so:

SSS = 1/64 = 16/1024 SSFS = 3/256 = 12/1024 SFSS = 3/256 = 12/1024 FSSS = 3/256 = 12/1024 SSFFS = 9/1024 SFSFS = 9/1024 FSSFS = 9/1024 SFFSS = 9/1024 FSFSS = 9/1024 FFSSS = 9/1024 FFSSF = 27/1024 FSFSF = 27/1024 SFFSF = 27/1024 FSSFF = 27/1024 SFSFF = 27/1024 SSFFF = 27/1024 FFSF = 27/256 = 108/1024 FSFF = 27/256 = 108/1024 SFFF = 27/256 = 108/1024 FFF = 27/64 = 432/1024

Adding up our target outcomes, we get 106/1024 odds of three successes before three failures, and 918/1024 odds of three failures before three successes. (If these don't add up to 1, you know you missed a case somewhere.)

Once we've got the symmetrical case (i.e., X successes before X failures), we can deal with asymmetrical cases simply by changing up which rows in the probability tree we've already constructed count as which outcome – we needn't start from scratch. For example, the odds of two successes before three failures moves all the 27/1024 rows in the above table into the "overall success" bucket, and we arrive at 268/1024 odds. Similarly, "three successes before two failures" would flip the 9/1024 rows over to the "overall failure" bucket.

(Now that we know what's going on "under the hood", the obvious follow-up question is "is there a general formula I can use to skip constructing the probability tree and get the answer directly?". The answer is "probably, but I don't recall it off the top of my head". If we're lucky, one of the several mathematicians following this blog will be able to correct my omission!)

[lytefoot]

This is a case of a Negative Binomial Distribution, which is a generalization of a Pascal Distribution.

Negative binomial distribution - Wikipedia

P(k failures before r successes) is given by

where p is the probability of success on a single roll, and the first factor is the binomial coefficient.

(Wikipedia says the negative binomial distribution is the same as the Pascal distribution, but when I took stats a thousand years ago, the Pascal distribution was the special case where r=1.)

Edited to add: AFAIK there isn't a nice closed form for P(at most k failures before r successes), so you'll need to add the individual probabilities manually. However, for death saves, k should be reasonably small.

[prokopetz]

Several folks have brought up the negative binomial distribution, but I'm reblogging this one because it's the only one that clarifies that what it gives you is the probability of "exactly k failures before r successes", so you still need to add up each individual case to get "at most k".

[gamemakerm]

just noticed the funniest review of one of my games. Thank you for your succinct summary

[drakeanddice]

Pinpanar9 is an unsung hero, leaving a simple and understated "good" on all manner of indie games. Every creator that I know who has an itch.io counts it as a mark of pride to have a "good" from pinpanar9.

I've got a couple, and every time I get one, I feel a little more like I've made it. That I'm a real designer.

And then I got this.

This is what I imagine an Ennie win feels like. It can't feel any better.

[prokopetz]

When I was like eight years old I read a novel where the protagonist gets isekaied to a fantasy world and immediately bumps into a wise mentor figure who purportedly wants to help her become a wizard, except it turns out that he's teaching her a fake magic system that does nothing except drain her power for his benefit. This wasn't even the actual plot of the book (the scheme is uncovered after like one chapter), but I've always wanted to do something with that in a tabletop RPG where the GM is actively lying to the players about what the rules are and they have to figure out how the "real" mechanics work. I haven't put any deep thought into how that could actually work from a structural perspective that doesn't just immediately devolve into yet another tedious exercise in "here's the vague suggestion of a system, now have the GM make something up", but it's on my "to do" list!

[cabbageheadgames]

1d100 cigarettes chart. 🚬

[cabbageheadgames]

50 cigarettes are done! I hope to finish this by next week. Thank you very much for how much you share and like this. :)

[blumineck]

This video brought to you by the Fantasy Adventurer Infomercial Committee

[cheeseanonioncrisps]

“I wish I was more powerful, like you guys. Even casting fireball takes it right out of me some days.”

“Hey, none of that. You're a valued member of the team, no matter what your power level.”

“I just don't understand how you can tear open that portal to the fire dimension so easily.”

“… fire dimension?”

“Yeah. Where the fire lives. Before you summon it. For fireballs.”

“Dude. We've been creating explosions by igniting flammable gases in the air. What the fuck have you been doing?”

[jantesika]

this is like the opposite of that "wizard vs artificer" post. the one that goes, like, "oh, you've just been summoning from the plane of water! I thought you had to combine hydrogen and oxygen, that's so much easier".

and I like that. because different methods will work for different people. sometimes you find it easier to start up physics and sometimes you find it easier to tear open the layers of reality.

[earhartsease]

it would be so funny if all fire actually came from the fire dimension, so putting out a fire would be like putting out a cat at night

[secretsnowclub]

Songbirds is a game for queers to kill and get killed and enjoy every moment of it. It's a dungeon crawler for those adventurers who enjoy being cut a little too deep and for those of us who would rather be doing anything else. It's a game about the grind, it's a game about being trans, it's a game about sex and violence.

It's free too. Go download it now.

Songbirds 3e by snow

An eldritch fantasy game.

[secretsnowclub]

its not free anymore cause life sucks :) so if you wanna support a down-on-her-luck trans girl, go check it out~

[beardedmrbean]

[prokopetz]

The Dungeons & Dragons paladin is objectively the funniest class because at first glance it seems like an artefact of an earlier age of the fantasy genre for which contemporary inspirations are thin on the ground, but then you dig into its thematic core and realise there are contemporary popular media characters who almost perfectly fit the mould, but like 80% of them are deeply unwell teenage lesbians.

[prokopetz]

Like, oh, you're running Oath of Devotion? So is this like an Adora Princessesofpower thing, or are you shooting more for Gideon Nav?

[prokopetz]

It just occurred to me that, given where her character arc and mechanical build have ended up as of the conclusion of Chapter 4, the list of deeply unwell teenage lesbians with paladin aesthetic now also includes Susie Deltarune.

[finalvortex]

Characters who have been tagged on this post:

Homura Akemi

Utena Tenjou (not technically the originator of this archetype, but certainly one of the most influential)

Magical girls, just as a general concept

Joan of Arc

Buffy Summers

Sabine Wren

Carrot Ironfoundersson (to my knowledge, not a teenager, but i guess you technically could consider him a lesbian by discworld dwarf standards)

Dale Cooper (???????)

Katara

[prokopetz]

I suppose it's a testament to how strongly teenage-girl-coded the archetype is that the folks who have a pathological need to make everything about their male blorbos are clearly struggling to do so.

[prokopetz]

Inadvisable tabletop RPG premise #137: Metal (as in the music) themed Dungeons & Dragons 4th Edition clone with a separate character class for each subgenre.

[noonmutter]

this only feels inadvisable because you'd never get past the iteration stage, everyone would devolve into shouting and potential violence over whether Dad Rock is a genre and whether various progressive metal bands fit in it

[prokopetz]

Not only that, no; it's also inadvisable because of how the structure of the taxonomy of metal subgenres intersects with the particulars of how character classes are structured in that specific iteration of D&D.

[prokopetz]

Predictions for Dungeons & Dragons under Hasbro's management in the coming years:

Uma Musume style horsegirls introduced to the Forgotten Realms; setting's lore revised so that they've always been there.

Advancement rules now stipulate per-session XP bonus based on lifetime D&D Beyond purchase history.

Compendium of exclusive feat trees for specific gender and sexual identities. Bisexuality receives no feats of its own, being mechanically implemented as "half gay"; the resulting synergies are disgusting.

Editorial error in revised Dungeon Master's Guide accidentally refers to Dungeon Masters as Hasbro's employees.

"Noble savage" coding of barbarian class walked back, refocused on European folkloric touchstones such as the Ulster Cycle; all barbarian characters become Irish stereotypes.

AI-based DM service trained exclusively on work of Ed Greenwood launched; withdrawn a week later citing "guiderail issues".

Expanded discussion of navigating player expectations frames "not showing up at all" as a valid playstyle.

Dragon-blooded sorcerer subclass revised to state that one of the character's ancestors was "very good friends" with a dragon.

[gentrigger]

[anim-ttrpgs]

I added "essays/discussion on TTRPG design" to the bio of this tumblr page, because when people see an opinionated post coming from this account they tend to shit themselves because for some reason nobody expects somebody who makes TTRPGs for a living to have really strong opinions about their design. Hopefully that will happen very slightly less in the future.

[tpwrtrmnky]

Ok, thought experiment:

You have two TTRPGs, Adventures & Aberrations, and Brigands & Bloodshed.

A&A has a well-known, glaring flaw in its rules as written, which results in critical hits being worse across the board for every player character, always, despite the rules presenting critical hits as particularly damaging. The solution is well-known and a standard house rule the entire community knows about.

B&B has the exact same rules, except that the critical hit rules have been fixed.

In both games, you are instructed that you can change the rules if you wish.

Is B&B a better game than A&A, or does the fact that you can houserule away the difference mean that they are equally good games?

[tpwrtrmnky]

Suppose, for the sake of the thought experiment, that "I like when critical hits suck" is an incorrect opinion for these games.

[vriska-coded]

My personal opinion, except my opinions about ttrpg design are always correct (obvious /j there)

B&B is better. Here are the reasons:

- A game “instructing you that you may change the rules” is frankly irrelevant because you can do that with any tabletop game. Nobody asks Hasbro if they can play Uno with stacking +2s and +4s.

-Not everybody that plays a game is a part of whatever nebulous “community” exists around it, especially in the modern era of TTRPGs where you can buy a game online and play with your friends while never speaking to a single other person about it. Those players are deprived of the house rule, especially if they are not adept enough at game design to fix it themselves.

-Fundamentally, a game which more competently achieves its design goals is a “better game” if we are trying to assess something as subjective as game design by objective standards.

TLDR: if I buy a game and it’s not a playtest draft, I shouldn’t need to go on reddit or join a discord for it to function properly.

[vixensdungeon]

A group of adventurers have descended into a dungeon and encountered some trolls.

"We need to use fire against them!" is not metagaming.

"Look for torches, there wouldn't be troll encounter if there wasn't some way for us to beat them!" is metagaming.

Is this clear?

[prokopetz]

Inadvisable tabletop RPG jam premise #137: Game jam where each entry consists solely of paratextual discussion of the mechanics of a hypothetical or invented RPG; examples include an errata document, a developer Q&A, or a forum thread debating the correct interpretation of a particular rule.

[prokopetz]

@shoutyourporpoise replied:

I could SWEAR you’ve made this post before, or perhaps this is such a characteristically “you” concept that I already imagined a world in which you had

I don't think so, no. I did once (unintentionally) curate a game jam about writing supplements for invented or hypothetical games, the product of which you can find here, but this is a different thing.

[probablybadrpgideas]

Don't tell the players the rules.

They have to guess. The game can't start until they reverse-engineer the whole system through sheer luck.