It has now been nearly half a year since the European Central Bank declared its intention to buy some €1.1 trillion worth of eurozone government bonds. Contrary to the claims of the policy’s supporters, there is little evidence so far that the policy is working.
Long term interest rates are affected by bond purchases, but also expectations about future monetary policy.
“Most glaring is QE supporters’ tendency to ascribe any decline in interest rates before the policy was announced to market participants’ expectations that QE would be coming. Yet they do not apply the same reasoning to the decline in inflation expectations that occurred during the same period. They have followed the same logic since the purchases began, ignoring recent increases in interest rates, while lauding the small rise in inflation expectations as proof of QE’s effectiveness.”
















