We might be talking past each other here. What I’m saying is:
If political violence gets legitimized (action), then the likelihood of political violence increases (consequence).
I think this argument is both obvious and uncontroversial. There’s a long history of humans responding to incentives, and the legitimization of political violence provides incentives for further political violence. For example, the violence that occurred last summer was legitimized through lenient prosecutions; concessions from mayors, governors, city councils and police chiefs; favorable media coverage; and in some cases large financial contributions from NGOs and multinational corporations. Liberals did not cause MAGA to riot directly, but rather contributed to the creation of an environment in which rioting was widely perceived as a rational endeavor with positive outcomes.
In other words, I suspect that the MAGA rioters (either consciously or subconsciously) realized: If you can get money, fame and power from political violence and are at little risk of going to jail for it, then why shouldn’t we get violent? After all, “rioting works”.
Going back to the shooting: Just because conservatives complained on Twitter that BLM rioters were not being shot with live ammunition does not mean that “getting shot with live ammunition” is the standard. To the contrary, the standard that was established over the summer was rubber bullets, teargas and catch-and-release. There were enough examples to suggest that this is how we as a society were going to respond to riots from now on:
Police would not use live ammunition.
Police would not interfere with property crimes, assault, arson, theft or breaking-and-entering.
Police would kneel before protestors in the street to hear their grievances.
Political leaders would surrender government property to the rioters (see Minneapolis Police Precinct 3 and the Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone).
Granted, I am simplifying for the sake of argument. Both the BLM riots and the Capitol Hill riot were far more complicated and nuanced than I’m able to grapple with here. And it is impossible to say whether the MAGA riot would still have happened if there were no BLM riots in the summer. But I am asserting that the logic of the BLM rioters and the logic of the MAGA rioters is similar enough that the expected result of creating a riot-friendly environment should be more riots. That is why I believe that the people who helped create that environment but who are hysterical about it now that things have gotten out of hand are either completely oblivious, hypocritically disingenuous or unable to understand how the social environment shapes human behavior.
As I said previously, I am not going to discuss justifications and protest goals, which are irrelevant to this topic.