#affect heuristic

[usunezukoinezu]

'' Whether we like it or not, we are puppets of our emotions. We make complex decisions by consulting our feelings, not our thoughts. Against our best intentions, we substitute the question, “What do I think about this?” with “How do I feel about this?” ''

-Rolf Dobelli, The art of thinking clearly

[carriejonesbooks]

You are so biased so how do you stop it

You are so biased so how do you stop it

There’s this guy named Sid who wrote about cognitive biases over on Medium. Sid got me thinking about all the ways we make decisions based on wrong assumptions or biases. He lays out ten, right? And I just wanted to talk about the first two this week and maybe make this a series. Why? Well, because as Sid says, “Being aware of our cognitive biases helps to recognize their power in shaping our…

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[calicojack1718]

Abortion, Democracy, the Economy, Race, and #COVID19: Dems Fail to Predict and Prepare

Every election cycle, the GQP drums up some racist dog whistle to seduce the middle-class suburban voter with, accuse Dems of socialists, and claim credit for the things they haven't done. The Dems stumble and fumble their messaging. Why don't they learn?

Abortion: Most Americans Just Tune Out the Noise and Dems Lose the Messaging War This is the second of a two-part series on the reasons Dems seem to lose the messaging war on the GQP’s divisive social issues. In the first, we took a deeper dive into abortion because Roe v. Wade. But in all of these issues, the GQP has aggressive emotional divisive messages that seem to catch the Dems off guard…

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[calicojack1718]

Being a Likeable Old White Guy is Biden's Super Power

Being a Likeable Old White Guy is Biden’s Super Power

Most people don’t realize it, but we are in the middle of one of the most fascinating natural experiments in modern American history. We know that our current era of politics is determined by one of two trends. (1) We act more out of hatred for our opponents than we do out of support for our candidates. It explains how odious creatures like Ted Cruz get elected. And (2) we support the policies…

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[convivialdave]

The affect heuristic is an instance of substitution, in which the answer to an easy question (How do I feel about it?) serves as an answer to a much harder question (What do I think about it?).  Careful not to overwhelm your decision making with emotion.

[intronautify]

The Affect Heuristic

[starbucksfaster]

Why I Love Starbuck's La Boulange Launch

Lemme ask you: What do you think about the food at Starbucks?

Before you can answer that, you'll first process the question in a primitive part of your brain, which takes into account your previous experiences, knowledge, and general feelings about the product, including that picture of Starbuck's old pastry case above, and elicits an emotion. It is then sent to your higher-level-conscious-brain, where you finally formulate an answer. This mental short-cut, called affect heuristics, takes only a split second, but because it happens automatically and subliminally and before you give it conscious thought, it heavily influences your answer. 

So what do you think about the food at Starbucks? 

If you're like most people, you might have a few select favorite treats, but for the most part, the general consensus is that it is "passable." Starbucks is known for their coffee, not the food.

Which is why I like what they've done with the La Boulange launch. 

Notice the red stripe in the middle, clearly branded La Boulange.

And these pastry bags, also branded La Boulange. 

Had they simply integrated La Boulange into Starbucks without separate branding like they have in the past with new pastries, it they would have fallen victim to affect heuristics; the higher quality offerings of La Boulange wouldn't have mattered, because customers would have perceived it as generic "Starbucks food."

How is La Boulange anyways? 

First, the name itself conjures up a mental image of an authentic french bakery, its chefs wearing traditional chef hats and a red scarf, who make exaggerated gestures as they bake and an "OK" signal with their fingers as food pops out of the oven. 

The bakeries itself also have a reputation for great food, garnering mostly positive reviews (the one a block away from my store has 4/5 stars based on 465 reviews on Yelp). 

But they are not well known outside the Bay Area. 

What I think will happen

Starbucks will slowly expand La Boulange stores nationwide mainly as a way to establish its reputation as a high quality bakery. However, they will launch no more than a handful of stores in major cities so La Boulange keeps their "indie cred." Starbucks stores itself will continue to explicitly serve La Boulange food and piggyback on its reputation. 

It's difficult to change consumer perceptions with a brand as ubiquitous as Starbucks.

Much easier to buy one and draw upon its strengths (if you have the money). 

My forecast

While I think the food offerings at Starbucks will certainly improve, both inherently and perceived, I don't think they're shooting to attract people who specifically just want food. What they will attract are people who are looking for coffee AND food -- the type of customers who grab a sandwich next door before dropping in Starbucks. 

In other words, once the news gets around that Starbucks serves that awesome La Boulange stuff, opening a food place next to Starbucks (especially one that serves pastries and coffee) wouldn't be my first choice of business opportunities. 

And because they own Bay Bakery (who runs La Boulange) and produce their food cheaper, but now charge more for it, I imagine their profit margins will be fantastic once they smooth out their supply chain. 

Curious to see what happens once Pascal Rigo rolls out the lunch stuff, if noon rushes will involve more food. 

Regardless, I'll be holding on to my $SBUX stocks, thank you very much. 

He's my partner. Business partner, that is. Thanks for the stocks and benefits.