Here are some thoughts I've been having, things that I think based on what I've seen in life so far but have no statistic or evidence to pull up right now. Just ideas I'm throwing around to try to figure it out, wondering what other people think:
In 2020, there were a lot of things set up that made it temporarily easier for people to vote, because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Donald is wrong and lying to you when he claims there was fraud in 2020. There was no fraud, there was a pandemic and measure put in place to make voting more accessible in certain places---which increased turnout. I'm not totally sure, but I believe that those methods were in fact temporary and did not last. Regardless, those measures made it so that enough people at that time could turn out to vote in some way.
Also in 2020, there was the aforementioned deadly pandemic. It was unpredictable and it had the power to affect everyone equally with no discrimination, and it was new. It was under no one's control---but by November of that year we all explicitly saw Donald and friends mismanage the situation to deadly effect. COVID affected everyone, personally, not necessarily by infection---but personally nonetheless. Enough people were not happy with Donald and friends handling of the situation. People knew others who died, or who survived but were beginning to suffer from long COVID, and we all saw the body bags. Enough people knew that you could not ignore the situation away. The first vaccinations started happening in December, so during November, we did not know for sure if or when any vaccine would be available. This was one singular issue that was nationwide, nonpartisan, and non-political until Donald made it political. Enough people didn't like that and they had an easier way to vote.
Many pro-life people are women. Perhaps more than I originally thought, maybe not, but maybe just enough.
Many men are pro-choice, but not enough, clearly.
Many immigrants and children of immigrants do not like other immigrants. Many others don't care about politics at all. Many of them are sensitive to communism and take any accusation of communism as completely serious and run with it, regardless if that accusation is factually true or not. For enough of them, they got theirs, they made it, their family is all good, and that's what matters most.
When Donald or the comic or whoever makes racist "jokes", for many of his supporters---even those of color---it truly is just a joke and nothing deeper. I've seen some of them on YouTube and elsewhere say as much. Donald is truly a funny person to them and that is just comedy to them. So, for enough people, "jokes" are just jokes and they didn't matter.
You clearly cannot bank on any group being the monolith that will win this for us. I think we knew this already, but I didn't expect the results to be like this. So I guess I need to touch grass because I don't know what else to do. I guess I'm the one who was out of ouch with reality. Feels sad.
Many people are not interested in politics as something to do, but only as something to watch and react to and talk about, but not in any substantive depth. It's something to socialize about when it happens and then not think about much after. It seems like a show for enough people, and I suppose you could say that Donald does provide more of a show.
As for the consequences of that show, for enough people, the problems of others don't really matter to them. They are the main character of their own life, after all. For enough people, it's hard to ask them to care about others they way they would their own family or friends---it's harder to ask them to do something about it, like vote. It sucks but I think that might be reality.
Many people aside from that, are not interested in politics at all.
The media loves Donald and because of that , he loves them, as much as he says otherwise. Constantly being in the news maybe desensitizes us to him, perhaps familiarizes him to us and people like familiar. It certainly lowers the bar and sets a new, lower standard of behavior and expectation, for enough people. The media sanewashing of him certainly helped him, regardless of reason why. So long as he doesn't, on day one, first thing, round up us dissidents in a camp and do who knows what, people and the media will say we were all being dramatic and that he isn't that bad. The media helped him. The media wanted him to win. Either that, or republicans control the media more than I thought.
Either way, many people's trust in media is totally broken now, either because of how they sanewashed Donald or because they were his fans anyway and believed everything he said about the media hating him. Media literacy skills are struggling and traditional news outlets do not care about that and others can't make enough money being rational and truthful. This puts people at even greater risk of finding seriously and potentially dangerous fringe news media to consume. The risk that poses to society...the rapid downward spiral that could potentially happen just because of that alone...I don't even know what to say.
Did people really hate sending aid to Ukraine that much? More than I thought, maybe.
In a way, Biden gave up the incumbent advantage when he stepped out of the race. I suppose we don't know for sure, but he probably would've lost still.
But there was no one better to replace him then Kamala Harris. She had everything going right for her, a well-educated, articulated, prosecutor to go against the felon. For many people, she didn't have the baggage that Hillary Clinton had. And her campaign was very strong. I don't think it could've been better, but maybe I'm wrong, but I think that Biden would've lost worse.
But, then again, some people in one of my favorite subreddits were saying that Kamala Harris reminded them of Bernie Sander's run, with big online energy and support and huge rallies---ultimately to little effect. I didn't realize that till they said that.
But also, extremely the misogyny. For enough people, she is a woman and that's it.
More than enough men would vote for a rapist than a woman.
Maybe more women than I thought would do the same.
There are not enough LGBTQ people to sway most areas. Not that we are a monolith either, but if we were, there wouldn't be enough. I know this because I was reading something that said that LGBTQ voters in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina could have a more significant role to swing them. It seems that Donald has won all 4 of those.
The groups that Democrats play to, often marginalized people/minorities---taken individually, like as I was saying for us LGBTQ people, do not have enough numbers or influence alone, even if we all voted the same way. We need every one of those groups to vote in high numbers, to make up for where the others can't make it up themselves. But if that doesn't happen, if the party isn't truly in unity with itself, then I guess it doesn't work out for us.
Taking all the groups that Democrats play to together as one Democratic voting bloc, it was not enough. But is that because there are actually more Republicans than I thought or because not enough Democrats voted?
I didn't think that any protest vote would amount to significantly affect the result. But I also didn't think that he would win after all these years. So maybe it did, maybe not. I don't know anymore, guess I never did.
Is it truly about revenge? Donald and his fans wanted revenge for Biden and 2020 for whatever they did to them. Is it really that simple?
So far, for me, it seems that voter turnout is one of the primary reasons that stand out to me, that explains both why Biden won in 2020 and why Kamala lost in 2024
But by voter turnout, I don't know what I mean by that because voter turnout in numbers is close to what is was in 2020.
I guess Obama's win was an anomaly and not a sign.