I think you've talked a bit before about Elden Ring PVP, but what's your take on the setup now that a little bit of time has passed? I get the impression that ER has so much wacky insane weapon skills and spells that hoping for any kind of balance or expectation of fairness and predictability is just close to impossible
So these games are always designed with PvE first and PvP a distant fourth in mind, which is why PvP in Souls has always been so volatile, but at the same time, so fun, in a party game kind of way: There is NO way to reach a perfect balance that can ever be called fair, which is also why there'll never be any sort of "competitive" scene beyond small clusters of players with different house rules or communities.
Even the game that is most balanced PvPwise, Dark Souls 2, has some goofy goober shit you can pull in order to upset the balance pretty easily. Not to mention Dark Souls 1 and Bloodborne, which are notorious circuses where PvP is the punch where all lines converge.
Elden Ring is on the clown end of the scale, not as hard as DS1 or Bloodborne, but on the clown end nonetheless. This is because it's just too much effort to balance PvP when you consider that jumping is a thing now in addition to how viable Ashes of War/Weapon Skills are. Balancing all of these things in a way that is fair both for PvE and PvP is impossible. Nothing's stopping me from going super heavyweight with two Concrete Hammers, one of which has Bloodhound's Step, and approaching you with a combination of ultimate bulk and ultimate mobility, and then nailing you with jumping powerstanced hammers for 1.4k damage.
Does it have a counter? Yeah. Will people know it or have access to the playstyle or tools that counter that? Likely not. And I don't think it was the intent for that to ever be the case. Sometimes you get invaded by a joke of a player, sometimes you get invaded by a parry god. It's the same here, sometimes you get invaded by a good match up, sometimes you get invaded by your perfect counter.
It Is What It Is. These were never supposed to be fair fights, it's always been the intent that this is the Wild West. It's also, in a way, why invaders can only invade people in co-op: The invader ALWAYS has the intent to fight a player, the host may not want to, so they get an advantage in terms of numbers.
"any kind of balance or expectation of fairness and predictability is just close to impossible" and here, you said it yourself, Vivi. This is the case, very much. Don't expect any sort of competitive PvP balance to exist. They will ever only fix or tune down things that are just outright TOO powerful, but they'll never strive for actually equal balance of match-ups because that never was their intent in the first place.