My 2022 Oscar Predictions
Cinema is back! The last year since the 2021 Oscars were handed out in April 2021 has given us big blockbuster experiences: âDuneâ, âNo Time To Dieâ, âSpider-Man: No Way Homeâ and latest âThe Batmanâ, which of course will have to wait until next yearâs Oscars to fight for the awards. While the three aforementioned 2021 Blockbusters are all up for Oscars, it is only âDuneâ that really is part of the biggest races with no less than 10 nominations only surpassed by Netflixâ âThe Power of the Dogâ, which highlights another trend of 2021: the atmospheric slowburner. Apart from Jane Campionâs take on the West, we were given beautiful slowburners such as âDrive My Carâ, âNightmare Alleyâ and âMassâ (which sadly hasnât been nominated for anything). Other trends were the comeback of musicals with films like âIn the Heightsâ (not nominated), âCyranoâ (one nomination) âTick, tickâŠBOOM!â (two nominations) and of course Spielbergâs long awaited remake of âWest Side Storyâ (7 nominations) and some true feel good stories as we got in âKing Richardâ (6 nominations), âCODAâ (3 nominations) and âLicorice Pizzaâ (3 nominations). Finally, as a Dane, I of course HAVE to highlight the historic presence of âFleeâ, which is the first film ever to score trio nominations for Best Animated Feature Film, Best Documentary Feature and Best International Feature Film.Â
All in all, however, I personally find last yearâs slate of films to be stronger. There were simply more films I loved last year. Although, I still like a lot of the films from this year, âFleeâ is actually the only one of them all to get a 5/5 score from me on Letterboxd. In all 53 films were nominated and I ended up seeing 50 of them with only a couple of short films sadly missing from my watchlist. In no way a sign of devaluing the shorts, unlike what The Academy has done to those three categories along with Film Editing, Make-Up and Hairstyling, Production Design, Score and Sound. A shameful decision forced by ABCâs negligence of the crafts without which there would be no films to celebrate. I hope to see plenty of artists, presenters and winners protesting this decision on the red carpet, during the show and after the show, so the decision will be rolled back before next yearâs awards.
So who will win? Here are my predictions: (In parenthesis are my personal ratings of the films from 1-5)
The Power of the Dog (4,5)
It started off as being Belfastâs to lose. Then that slowly disappeared out of the race and for a long time it looked like it would be a one horse race with The Power of the Dog as the obvious winner. However, that only until the entire cast of CODA hit the stage at the SAG Awards to collect their SAG Ensemble award. Since then CODA has taken home adapted screenplay at BAFTA (ahead of British Belfast) and WGA as well as PGA. Some heavy weight awards to walk into the Oscars with. And it looks like it very well could be enough for CODA, who might also have an advantage in the preferential ballot system. I have a clear idea that CODA is easier to love and it is to hate, whereas The Power of the Dog might be hard to love and easier to dislike. I doubt many people will have The Power of the Dog in the middle of their ballot - it will either take a top spot or a bottom spot, whereas I think CODA will take top spots and middle spots as people tend to put their hated or disliked films in the bottom. Ultimately, however, I think - right now - that The Power of the Dog still have the widest support within the Academy, although I might very well change that five or six times in the run in to show start. It is that close!
Personally, I didnât directly dislike any of the ten nominees. I was truly impressed with the visual and sonic work in Spielbergâs West Side Story, but I simply never bought the central love story making it a somewhat cold experience for me, which I was surprised by. Maybe it will change on a rewatch. I rated a lot of the films 4 out of 5 stars of which I want to highlight Dune, which I was truly impressed by, but I couldnât stop feeling it was a long trailer for a much bigger film; awards will rain on the sequel, Iâm sure. Nightmare Alley is beautiful and atmospheric but a bit too slow in its second half, and King Richard is one of the best biopics of recent years. CODA is as heartwarming as it gets and a truly well-acted audience pleaser with some much needed and important representation! On a rewatch I changed my score for Donât Look Up from a 4,5 to a 4, but McKayâs furious bulldozer subtle satire still works surprisingly well for me, although it is still clearly far from the masterpiece The Big Short. Belfast is a nice and lighthearted depiction of war through the eyes of a child featuring some stunning acting and a super interesting sound design, but I lacked some character development and a deeper connection to the story to appreciate it further. The Power of the Dog is in many ways a masterful film, although it might suffer a bit from the same limitations as previous Netflix films from masterful directors such as Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman) and David Fincher (Mank) in the sense that it is a bit closed, albeit nowhere near as much as the other films mentioned. With 12 nominations it clearly has widespread and well-deserved support and it grew on me on a rewatch too, taking my third place. My two personal favourites, however, are Drive My Car, which really moved me on a deeper level and was a truly impressive adaptation from Hamaguchi, and Licorice Pizza, which simply is one of the best times I have had in a cinema the last year. Neither of the two stand a chance, though. Personally, I would have loved to see at least one of the following: Flee, Spencer and/or The Worst Person in the World.
Who will win: The Power of the Dog
Personal favourite: Licorice Pizza
Should have been there: Spencer
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (2,0)
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (4,5)
Andrew Garfield, Tick, tickâŠBOOM! (4,5)
Will Smith, King Richard (4,0)
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (4,0)
The category that deflated the finale of last yearâs Oscars with Anthony Hopkinsâ extremely deserved, yet clearly unplanned win, is back with another seemingly clear cut winner in advance this year. Last year, Chadwick Boseman was on everyoneâs lips and this year Will Smithâs name is as good as already engraved in the Best Leading Actor Oscar. He is charming and inspiring in King Richard; his best performance since The Pursuit of Happiness and perhaps his career best. The only possible challenger for him seems to be Benedict Cumberbatch who might also give a career best performance in The Power of the Dog; he is as vile as he is fragile and his performance is constantly unnerving. My personal favourite, however, is once again out of tune with the consensus: Andrew Garfield broke my heart in Tick, tickâŠBOOM! where he sang and performed with all he got as Jonathan Larson. Another career best? The three of them are outstanding! Washington is always good, but yet, to me, he never managed to make The Tragedy of Macbeth more than a(n extremely stunning) visual showpiece. The inclusion of Javier Bardem is honestly insulting to quite a big bunch of actors who gave beautiful, layered performances. Personally, I would have loved to see Nic Cage for Pig, Hidetoshi Nishijima for Drive My Car or one of my personal favourites of the year Peter Dinklage for Cyrano who simply broke my heart with his performance as the titular character; he is one of the most charismatic actors to see and was probably the one closest to getting the nod.
Potential spoiler: Benedict Cumberbatch
Personal favourite: Andrew Garfield
Should have been there: Nicolas Cage / Peter Dinklage
Actor in a Supporting Role
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (3,5)
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (4,5)
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (2,)
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (4,5)
Another two horse race involving The Power of the Dog and another two horse race where it looks destined to lose. Kodi Smit-McPhee started award season in a strong way, but - as with Best Picture - the moment Kotsur and the CODA cast took the stage at SAG changed everything. Kotsur has won everything since then and he would be a well-deserved winner as his performance in the film is both extremely funny (completely relying on ASL for the laughs) and heartwarming. Add to that his extreme likability when entering the stage and you have one of the most certain winners of the night. I would not complain with a Smit-McPhee win either, though. Plemons is the least showy in The Power of the Dog, but it was still a nice surprise to see him on nomination morning; he will get a lot closer to an Oscar win in the coming years, Iâm sure. Ciaran Hinds is extremely charming in Belfast and creates a lovable character. The inclusion of J.K. Simmons, much like that of Bardem in leading actor, is a disaster; his character was one-dimensional and uninspired. Considering the amount of beautiful supporting actor performances we have had this year, his inclusion could only have been topped by the inclusion of Jared Leto for House of Gucci. With all this being said, I have to highlight Jason Isaacs in Mass - it is a crime that he wasnât nominated. Heck, I honestly think he should be winning. Mike Faist for West Side Story could also have deserved a nomination here and so could Anders Danielsen Lie in The Worst Person in the World, although you could argue that he balances on being a lead.
Who will win: Troy Kotsur
Potential spoiler: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Personal Favourite: Troy Kotsur
Could have been there: Jason Isaacs (Mass)
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (3,5)
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (3,5)
Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (3,5)
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (2,0)
Kristen Stewart, Spencer (4,5)
Just as last year, this category is all up in the air! Before the awards season started everyone had Kristen Stewart as a clear winner, then she lost Golden Globe to Nicole Kidman who took the favourite tag especially as Kristen Stewart missed several nominations. Then Lady Gaga took over for House of Gucci only to not even get an Oscar nomination allowing Chastain to take over with wins at SAG and Critics Choice. And now, after the release of secret Oscar ballots, PenĂ©lope Cruz looks ready for a last minute surge. Who will win??? It looks like Chastain, who I really liked in Tammy Faye, but look out for Cruz or Colman! Both of them deliver amazing work in their films and they are extremely well-liked in Hollywood and I might very well end up going with a surprise last minute win for Cruz. Stewartâs performance in Spencer is in my eyes easily the best performance of the year, but the general lack of love for the film makes it hard to imagine a world where she wins, and Kidman seems to be out of the race again too. Renate Reinsve should have been here for The Worst Person in the World and so should Alana Haim for Licorice Pizza.
Who will win: Jessica Chastain
Potential spoiler: Penélope Cruz
Personal favourite: Kristen Stewart
Could have been there: Renate Reinsve and Alana Haim
Actress in a Supporting Role
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (3,5)
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (3,5)
Judi Dench, Belfast (3,5)
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (4,5)
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (4,0)
One of the easiest categories to call of the evening. If Ariana DeBose doesnât win for her scene stealing performance in West Side Story then it is easily one of the biggest shocks in recent Oscar history; she has won EVERY important award until now. While she is very good, my personal favourite of the five nominees is Jessie Buckley who simply gets better and better, and for me, she stole the show in The Lost Daughter. Ellis has some stunning scenes in King Richard and Dunst has rarely been better. Dench is biggest question mark here - sheâs just here on merit, right? The fact that she was picked ahead of Caitriona Balfe for Belfast has been widely discussed and righly so - Balfe is the heart of that film and the only possible explanation is that many people placed her in lead⊠Anne Dowd and Martha Plimpton in Mass really should have been in contention here, albeit Plimpton could have been placed in lead.
Who will win: Ariana DeBose
Potential spoiler: None (but Dunst if I have to pick one)
Personal favourite: Jessie Buckley
Should have been there: Anne Dowd (Mass)
The Mitchells vs the Machines (4,0)
Raya and the Last Dragon (3,5)
The Disney category is more Disney than ever this year with three of five nominees. Flee is the only masterpiece of this yearâs nominees in my opinion, yet I donât think it will take home any Oscar, because the love for it will probably be split between categories. Itâs not my personal favourite in this category either. Encanto looks destined to win with its stunning animation and record beating soundtrack, however The Mitchells vs the Machines is the most playful of the films and Luca packs the most moving story. Raya and the Last Dragon is the weakest the category has to offer, although it in no means is a bad film.
Potential spoiler: The Mitchells vs the Machines
Personal favourite: The Mitchells vs the Machines
Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley (4,0)
Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog (4,5)
Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth (4,0)
Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story (3,5)
Perhaps the best line-up of any category this year. Five amazing examples of cinematography. Fraserâs work in Dune is otherworldly and stunning in its many sci-fi vistas, Laustsen continues his atmospheric and dark collaboration with del Toro in Nightmare Alley, Wegnerâs grand vistas in The Power of the Dog makes it one of the most stunning films of the year, Delbonnel creates some fascinating images in The Tragedy of Macbeth and Kaminskiâs opening scene in West Side Story makes his nomination well-deserved for a film that packs plenty of cinematography magic. I honestly will not complain no matter who wins, but Fraser walks into the night as the favourite perhaps strengthened by peopleâs admiration for his current work on The Batman. Look out for Wegner, however, as her work is equally stunning and she has picked up a couple of wins. I would have loved to see Claire Mathon recognised for her work on Spencer, but I donât know what to kick out if Iâm honest.
Potential spoiler: The Power of the Dog
Personal favourite: The Power of the Dog
Could have been there: Spencer
If a film about two fashion designers battling against each other with two very distinct styles, which features a ton of costumes should not win this category, what should? And so it will be; Cruella is destined to take this home and it would be well-deserved.Â
Personal favourite: Cruella
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (3,5)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (4,5)
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (4,5)
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (4,5)
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (3,5)
Last year was a historic year for this category; the first time that two female directors were nominated in the same year. This year we only have one, but she will undoubtedly win. Jane Campionâs admirable work with The Power of the Dog looks unbeatable and she could have gotten well-deserved female company from Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) or Julia Ducournau (Titane). However, the biggest snub here is the omission of Denis Villeneauve for his work on Dune; a work often labelled un-adaptable that goes on to get 10 nominations but not for directing? Get out! Hamaguchiâs work is beautiful, but his screenplay is even stronger than his directing. West Side Story and Belfast are clear passion projects, but I definitely think that Spielbergâs direction is the strongest of the two. Finally, PTA just knows how to set up memorable scenes.
Who will win: Jane Campion
Potential spoiler: Steven Spielberg
Personal favourite: Jane Campion
SHOULD have been there: Denis Villeneuve
Summer of Soul (âŠor, when the revolution could not be televised) (4,5)
If Flee had only been nominated in this category it would have won and frankly, it should win! One of the best documentaries of recent years. However, Summer of Soul looks like the winner, and to be fair it is brilliant film that flawlessly manages to mix the stunning concert footage into a socio-political context to make a both entertaining and thought-provoking film. Ascension was deeply fascinating, Attica was a hard watch and Writing With Fire was deeply inspiring, albeit a bit uninspired film-wise. But a great year for documentaries!
Who will win: Summer of Soul (âŠor, when the revolution could not be televised)
Documentary (Short Subject)
The Queen of Basketball (4,0)
Three Songs for Benazir (3,5)
When We Were Bullies (have not seen this)
A category that is historically difficult to predict. However, this year The Queen of Basketball seems like quite a good pick in a somewhat disappointing year. Audible is its closest competitor as Three Songs for Benazir felt a bit too short and something felt off with Lead Me Homeâs stylish take on its deeply sad focus.
Who will win: The Queen of Basketball
Potential spoiler: Audible
Personal Favourite: The Queen of Basketball
The Power of the Dog (4,5)
We have all the different types of editing in place here. The fast-paced, playing-an-active-part-in-the-film editing of McKayâs satires in Donât Look Up, impressive action editing in Dune, fast-paced sports and montage editing in King Richard, seemless editing in The Power of the Dog and the more artistic and musical-based editing of Tick, tickâŠBOOM! A good thing to have in mind when predicting here is the obvious editing for the naked eye. King Richard or Tick, tickâŠBOOM! look like good bets then, but I have an idea that Dune will come close to a technical sweep and as such it needs this as well, but look out for the two others. West Side Story could have been in the mix here!
Potential spoiler: King Richard
Personal favourite: Tick, tickâŠBOOM!
Could have been there: West Side Story
International Feature Film
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (3,5)
The Worst Person in the World (4,5)
Drive My Car is up for four Oscars including Best Picture. This race is looking like a non-brainer. Flee is deserving and so is The Worst Person in the World, but they donât seem to stand a chance. Lunana was a nice surprise and it will get a well-deserved attention boost thanks this nomination. I didnât care that much for The Hand of God and would have liked it (VERY MUCH) if Titane had taken its place.
Who will win: Drive My Car
Potential spoiler: The Worst Person in the World
Should have been there: Titane
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (3,5)
The only nomination for the travesty that was House of Gucci and it will not get close to winning it despite its prosthetic work. Prosthetics were done better in both Dune and especially Coming 2 America. I think The Eyes of Tammy Faye will ride on the possible win for Chastain, but look out for the transformations of Eddie Murphy and Arsenio Hall in Coming 2 America. Cruella is here for the hairstyling but it will settle for its costume win. Again, Titane should have been there!
Who will win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Potential spoiler: Coming 2 America
Should have been there: Titane
The Power of the Dog (4,5)
Some strong scores here, with Zimmer looking like the clear winner for his loud, ominous work on Dune. Iglesiasâ score for Parallel Mothers is brilliant and controls the film like no other nominee. Greenwood comes closest to doing that with his work in The Power of the Dog and he should have been here for Spencer as well. However, the scores of Britell and Franco in Donât Look Up and Encanto are the most listenable outside of their films.Â
Potential spoiler: Parallel Mothers
Personal favourite: The Power of the Dog
Should have been there: Spencer
âBe Aliveâ, King Richard (4,0)
âDos Oruguitasâ, Encanto (4,0)
âDown to Joyâ, Belfast (3,5)
âNo Time to Dieâ, No Time to Die (4,0)
âSomehow You Doâ, Four Good Days (2,5)
Disney are hating themselves for not letting âWe donât talk about Brunoâ compete, although âDos Oruguitasâ is a stunning song that might just ride on the back of the record beating hit to give Lin-Manuel Miranda his EGOT. However, Billie Eilish and Beyonce would want a word in that fight with Eilish looking like the winner. Diane Warren is here again, because you know - apparently she has to, and âDown to Joyâ is bland, although it is a plus that it is featured in the actual film. âJust Look Upâ should have been there, as should âBeyond the Shoreâ from CODA.
Who will win: âNo Time to Dieâ
Potential spoiler: âDos Oruguitasâ
Personal favourite: âDos Oruguitasâ
Should have been there: âBeyond the Shoreâ
The Power of the Dog (4,5)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (4,0)
Five stunning films here highlighted by their corresponding cinematography nominations. While I think Dune will get that one, I think it might just lose this one to Nightmare Alley. Will the Academy go with the extremely impressive world building of Dune or the atmospheric del Toro magic of Nightmare Alley? It will be very close. Cyrano and Spencer could have been there, but who should they replace really?
Who will win: Nightmare Alley
Personal favourite: Nightmare Alley
Could have been there: Cyrano/Spencer
Boxballet (have not seen it)
The Windshield Wiper (4,0)
The most adult line-up in this category for years. Affairs of the Art and Bestia are quite disturbing, while The Windshield Wiper is stunning and fascinating. Robin Robin looks like the favourite and it is extremely charming and cute, but I am going for a surprise win for The Windshield Wiper.
Who will win: The Windshield Wiper
Potential spoiler: Robin Robin
Personal favourite: The Windshield Wiper
Ala Kachuu - Take and Run (4,0)
Please Hold (have not seen this)
The Long Goodbye is hard-hitting and can feel slightly un-finished, but it is strong and has the star factor of Riz Ahmed, although that didnât help The Letter Room (Oscar Isaac) last year. Danish contender On My Mind felt way too constructed and managed to feel overlong despite its 18 minute runtime. Finally, Ala Kachuu and The Dress are hard to watch, but Ala Kachuu seems to have a lot more heart and sympathy for its subject and, thus, it looks like the one to beat The Long Goodbye if one has to. Unless it will be the Black Mirror-ish Please Hold, which I sadly have not seen.
Who will win: The Long Goodbye
Potential spoiler: Ala Kachuu - Take and Run
Personal favourite: The Long Goodbye
The Power of the Dog (4,5)
Belfast has an interesting sound design as one of its strongest assets and the sound design of The Power of the Dog really helps build its atmosphere. However, it seems like it will be between the remaining three. Of them Dune seems like the strongest, but look out for West Side Story. If Edgar Wrightâs Last Night in Soho should have been anywhere, it probably should have been here.
Potential spoiler: West Side Story
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (3,5)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (4,0)
Last year I wrote: âA category that would probably have been dominated by films such as Godzilla vs. Kong, Dune and Black Widow in a normal 2020.â Of these, only Dune made it into the category in the end. Free Guy is the surprise addition here with is playful effects, and also this is the only option to give Spidey an Oscar, although Shang-Chi arguably had better special effects. However, Dune looks destined to win this as its effects played an integral part in its world building.
Potential spoiler: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
The Power of the Dog (4,5)
While I really liked CODA, I think it is wild that it might just beat (in particular) Drive My Car in this category. That ought to be winning, but The Power of the Dog looks like the one to beat for CODA as in Best Picture. And I actually think it will, even though it might just be the weakest of these five screenplays.Â
Potential spoiler: The Power of the Dog
Personal favourite: Drive My Car
Writing (Original Screenplay)
The Worst Person in the World (4,0)
I thought this would be Paul Thomas Andersonâs spot for finally winning an Oscar, but him losing the WGA to Adam McKay for Donât Look Up was quite the curve ball. Maybe Branagh will take it home for Belfast, although I did have some issues with his writing here. Can McKay do it with Donât Look Up? It seems too divisive, but it is in no way impossible. The real winner, however, should be The Worst Person in the World and I would love for it to win! Fran Kranzâ screenplay for Mass should have been here easily knocking King Richard out of the five.
Potential spoiler: Donât Look Up
Personal favourite: The Worst Person in the World
Should have been there: Mass
I wish everyone the best of Oscar nights! May the best films win!