Grimly hilarious at this point how consistently major protest activity is actively negative for a cause, just an own-goal for one's brand and any concrete goals... unless it is bailed out of that fact by the opposition committing completely unforced errors in response to the protest at which points things can equal out. "Seems like the winning move" etc etc
Grimly hilarious at this point how consistently major protest activity is actively negative for a cause, just an own-goal for one's brand and any concrete goals…
Huh? I am truly baffled what would have led you to think this.
I am going to bet (polls are still very preliminary, so while they point this way you can't rely on them) that the median voter will find events in LA have bolstered the case for mass deportations and improved their view of the Trump administration (until the other side of the coin ofc, which you didn't quote so I will ignore for now). And that the Trump administration will both be more emboldened and also be able to utilize that improved public opinion for more expansive action. If your goal is "reduce ICE deportations" in some way, shape, or form, these events were quite bad for that case.
"These people are dangerous!" is a much easier sell when you have dangerous people doing dangerous things.
Exactly - it isn't particularly fair, because a country of 300 million people is gonna have a story a day of violence you can blast out no matter how safe it, and I doubt the median person committing violence even is an immigrant versus a simple opportunist. But none of that changes that looting a downtown storefront as a "protest" is something the Trump admin is euphoric over happening, and wipes out whatever impact the 99% peaceful other protests may have had (which was probably zero, but still).
I remain highly skeptical of this framing. What's the null hypothesis, here? I'd say it's that Trump will continue to step up deportation as per his policy goal to do so. The fact that even you say that the impact of the "99% peaceful" protests "was probably zero" reads like a concession of that.
















