Welcome to the Oscars 2017: who will win, who should win. My analysis and guide into the most important night of Hollywood.
We are back for another year of surprises, snubs and, at times, predictable awards. Tonight will be full of fancy dresses, brand new memes and political undertones in every speech of the night. But, in between a beautiful dress and an A-lister falling gracefully in the red carpet, a film will be crowned as the best of 2016 or, at least, Hollywood’s favourite.
I usually make several posts analysing the most important categories with a couple weeks to go before the big awards. But as this year I’ve been busy with some creative work of my own, I am going to try to summarise my usual rant in a single post. So prepare for a long, and hopefully interesting, look into tonight’s show. And if you need tips to fill your ballot, you can always count on me!
Actor in a Supporting Role
After the surprising turn it took last year when Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) took the coveted award over clear favourite Sylvester Stallone (Creed), it seems this year this may be one of the most predictable categories in this year’s Oscars.
This year, we have three first timers in this category, one of them as young as 20. Alongside them are veterans Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals, one previous nomination) and Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water, 1 Oscar, 5 previous nominations). The awards season has been pretty divided (the Golden Globe went to an actor who wasn’t even nominated to the Oscars: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals), but there seems to be a clear winner.
Who will win: Marhershala Ali (Moonlight) is the obvious frontrunner. He has won the Critics’ Choice Award and the Actors Guild. And although Dev Patel (Lion) snitched the BAFTA just two weeks ago, it seems Ali is a locked deal for every ballot around the net.
Who should win: Marheshala Ali isn’t only the favourite but, in my opinion, the best out of a bunch of really talented actors. His performance in Moonlight, although brief, was intense, powerful and moving. His character also drove the main character’s growth into the different stages of life.
Among the other nominees, it is worth to mention Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea). Although only 20 years old, newcomer Hedges’ performance was incredible and touching, a great portrait of growing up and dealing with grief.
Actress in a Supporting Role
A year after the Academy was called out for not nominating any people of colour in the acting categories for two years in a row, it seems it has finally reacted to the heavy criticism. And this is the category with the most diversity this year.
Everyone except Naomie Harris (Moonlight) has already been nominated at least once before. This includes two actresses who have already been winners: Nicole Kidman (nominated this year for Lion) and Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures). Viola Davis (Fences) is a third time nominee and Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea), a four timer.
Who will win: Viola Davis has this award in the bag. She has won big during the whole season: Golden Globe, BAFTA, Actors’ Guild, Critics’ Choice. It’d be a real upset if anyone else won. No one is even considering another possibility.
Who should win: Viola Davis has been playing incredible roles for years, both on TV and on film. After not winning for The Help in 2012 (film for which her category buddy Octavia Spencer did win), it is only right she wins for her amazing performance in Fences. Her portrayal is emotional and raw, difficult to find in cinema nowadays.
My personal favourite, though, had to be the incredible Naomie Harris in Moonlight. Her performance was, as Viola’s, raw and deep. However, Michelle Williams’ intensity was probably, and regrettably, the thing I liked the least about an otherwise beautiful film.
This may be the closest race of the night. Once a clear win for Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Denzel Washington (Fences) has sneaked into the predictions in the last few weeks and seems to be ready to win.
Although the race is clearly a 50/50 in between those two actors, months ago it seemed like nominee Ryan Gosling (La La Land) also had a chance. Unfortunately, his Golden Globe winning in January deflated and it seems it will be the film that takes the awards, not him. First time nominee Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge) is a long shot, but it is easy to see this has been his best year yet (also starring in Scorsese’s Silence) and we will probably see him back in the Oscars in many years to come. Finally, Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic) comes to his second nomination in a little known but highly praised role that both critics and audience have acclaimed since the film premiered in Sundance last year.
Who will win: It is such a 50/50 that I have been struggling for weeks and still struggle to call a final choice. Although the maths clearly point to Casey Affleck (a 49.5% according to Ben Zauzmer’s Maths Predictions on The Hollywood Reporter), Denzel Washington is said to be the favourite by most experts (at least since he won the Actors’ Guild a few weeks ago). Affleck did win the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the Critics’ Choice (an almost complete sweep), but scandal has been following him the whole race for a sexual harassment suit filed against him in 2010.
I wouldn’t say for sure, but the development in the last few weeks seem to give Denzel Washington a small lead. But don’t be surprised if Casey Affleck manages to win tonight.
Who should win: When all is said and done and if we leave out anything that isn’t just performances, I would have to say Casey Affleck should win. His performance was really good and he he carried the enormous emotional weight of this film almost sorely on his shoulders. Although Denzel Washington was great, Fences was a bit too theatrical to me, seeming to forget cinema doesn’t have the same rules, even for its actors.
Actress in a Leading Role
This is a category that has had me thinking a lot this season. Not because the winner is a tough call (it hasn’t been for the past few weeks), but because of how it is decided who is leading and who is supporting. Because, honestly, wouldn’t you say Viola Davis was a main character in Fences? I’m also conflicted by the wonderful Amy Adams not being nominated for any of her performances this year (Arrival, Nocturnal Animals).
But going back to the race, it is a pretty easy call. Natalie Portman (Jackie) may have had a possibility back in January, but the road to the Oscar has been pretty clear for Emma Stone (La La Land) ever since.E
In this category, we also see legend Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) achieving her 20th acting nomination. French actress Isabelle Huppert (Elle) gets a consolation nomination after the film was forgotten in the Foreign Film category. Finally, Ruth Negga (Loving) gets her first nomination in a year in which she starred in both an incredible film (Loving, 89% on RottenTomatoes) and in a poorly received blockbuster (Warcraft, 28%).
Who will win: Emma Stone seems to have no competitors this year. After being nominated two years ago for Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), she has won almost everything this year. The only exception is the Critics’ Choice, which went to Natalie Portman. But Stone has her award pretty secured, a 67.8% according to maths.
Who should win: Hard call. There were many amazing performances this year, all of them earning high praise. Personally, I loved Portman’s Jackie, but I have to say Emma Stone was my favourite. Although it isn’t a difficult role, she shined in La La Land. Particularly, her performance during the audition scene was one for the books. I already rooted for her two years ago (when, for me, she unfairly lost against an only decent Patricia Arquette), so she is my pick this year.
Nine films will fight tonight for the biggest award of the night. All of them have been praised by the critics and, honestly, I think we have had one of the strongest years in the past few years. Also, it has been one of the most low-key. Many of the films weren’t very popular before awards season, and only raised to be well known once award season chatter started.
From sci-fi Arrival to the masterpiece that is Moonlight, these are all stories about humanity, finding oneself and, well, surviving in life when everything seems against you.
Who will win: It would be a surprise if La La Land didn’t win the night. It has tied Titanic and All About Eve at 14 nominations. It has won awards all over the globe. It has been highly praised by both critics and audience. It has even suffered the Frozen effect, meaning it had so much praise and hype around it, that people (even those who haven’t even seen it) are so tired of hearing about it, they seem to hate the film now. And although films like Moonlight may have a slight chance, it’d be a real showstopper if La La Land didn’t win.
Who should win: Although I really liked La La Land (artistically it was a masterpiece, script-wise it was good enough. As an homage to musicals it was wonderful), in a year so full of talent, it wasn’t my favourite. I think Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea were the greatest achievements this year. They are both masterpieces: amazing screenplays, outstanding performances, great cinematography and editing, perfect pacing… a long list of praise for both of them. They are very emotional and human pieces that really touch their audience in a way that films often aren’t able to reach.
Others nominees not mentioned before include Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures and Lion. Although I didn’t quite love Fences (too dialogue heavy for my taste), they are all incredible films worthy of being in this category. Also, praise to the Academy for nomination a sci-fi (Arrival) that surprises being so human when it is dealing with aliens.
For the past few years, the Academy has decided to mix more popular all-American-industry films (Zootopia and Moana this year) with less known, usually foreign, underdogs (The Red Turtle, My Life as a Zucchini). This year is no exception, although it is remarkable to point out Disney earned two nominations, whereas Pixar (a usual contender, only three of its films before this hasn’t been nominated), even though it did release a film in 2016, got zero.
The five nominees are rounded up by the highly praised Kubo and the Two Strings, which took home the BAFTA only weeks ago. Kubo has been a surprise in the race, from being a not very well known film to being the second favourite tonight.
Who will win: From early on, Disney’s Zootopia has been the frontrunner. In the last few weeks, though, Kubo and the Two Strings has been coming closer and closer. Ben Zauzmer’s maths call a close 50.9% - 41.8% race in favour of Zootopia. And it is true no BAFTA animated winner nominated to the Oscars has ever lost the Oscar. But Zootopia long string of wins (including the Annie), plus the message of the film, will probably make it the winner. Be open to a surprise, anyway.
Who should win: Although all of the nominees are incredibly creative and Disney’s Moana has wonderful animation and sountrack (script a bit lacking), my vote would go for Zootopia. It is a beautiful and creative story that reflects today’s society while also telling the tale of an extraordinary friendship between unusual companions.
Writing: Adapted Screenplay + Original Screenplay
The writing categories haven’t been without controversy this year. The Academy has a different point of view of what qualifies as original and what qualifies as an adaptation. Surprisingly, Moonlight has been considered an adaptation when it was determined it was an original script in the Writers Guild Awards. It is true is was based on a play, but as they play was never producer, it is tricky to determine who is right. The Academy is very strict in this sense, though, Whiplash was considered an adaptation of Damien Chazelle’s own short film (which he made to get the opportunity to do the feature). Any sequel is considered an adaptation because it uses characters of a previous film.
Anyway, back to the race.
Who will win in Adapted Screenplay: It would have had tougher competition in Original, so Moonlight could actually be lucky to be in this category. It also won for original screenplay in the Writers Guild. Other nominees (Lion, Arrival) have gotten some awards, but highly praised Moonlight seems the frontrunner.
Who should win in Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight is one of a kind. The storytelling is sweet and moving, poignant and simply incredible. It is a simple tale told beautifully. Every person I talk to has been blown away by it. I have to say I also find Arrival was a great adaptation, and Hidden Figures has been incredibly praised. My only pet peeve here is Fences, as I wouldn’t count it as an adaptation because, according to all sources, director Denzel Washington didn’t want to change a single word of the play, so they didn’t. Is that adapting? Is just taking a script and performing it in another media worthy of this nomination?
Who will win in Original Screenplay: Tougher race, one may say one of the toughest alongside Actor in a Leading Role. Because of the previously mentioned confusion with which film goes in which category, looking at other awards isn’t really useful. Moonlight won the Writers Guild, La La Land got the Golden Globe, Manchester by the Sea, the BAFTA. It should be a close call between Manchester and La La Land, but I feel like this is usually an award that is given to great films which wouldn’t get any recognition otherwise, so my bet is on Manchester by the Sea.
Who should win in Original Screenplay: Although I really enjoyed La La Land, I don’t think its screenplay is its best quality. It is good, but it isn’t outstanding. The Lobster was a very original film that really surprised me, so it is a close second, but my favourite was Manchester by the Sea, because it felt true and raw in the best of senses. I also went in with the feeling it’d just depress me, and it was actually the perfect measure of melancholic and sweet.
This is a category usually tied to Best Picture, and this year seems no exception.
Who will win: Damien Chazelle is clearly the favourite with La La Land. He won the Directors Guild, the BAFTA, the Golden Globe, the Critics’ Choice… So he is here on a landslide. Also, he is Hollywood’s golden boy, so it would be difficult for him not to win.
Who should win: I think many of these films are a big achievement, but I consider directing a musical is always a challenge, so my choice would be Damien Chazelle. I also have to confess I have a soft spot for him after Whiplash, which I honestly preferred to La La Land and thought was underrated.
For me, one of the most interesting categories of the night. Usually overlooked, cinematography is what gives a film its tone, its personality. This year, there are some great contenders.
Who will win: La La Land seems to be going to sweep all the technical awards it can. In true Mad Max: Fury Road fashion, La La Land is a frontrunner because honestly, like it or not, it is technically great. As Ben Zauzmer points out, in the past seven years only Birdman has won without a production design nomination. That would only leave La La Land and Arrival on the run. And there has been a lot of buzz around the prettiness of La La Land and, of course, that wonderful last sequence.
Who should win: I was honestly surprised by how beautiful Moonlight was. Although the shots were kind of too harsh at the beginning for me, the beach scene completely made me fall head over heels. Although I think La La Land is a true beauty, Moonlight is my favourite.
It also blows my mind how they create such wonderful worlds in film. Production Design is an underrated art that is able to create from spaceships (Passengers) to magical worlds (Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them) and make us believe for two hours they are actually possible.
Who will win: As I said, it seems like La La Land is going to win everything technical. It won on the Art Directors Guild (although Passengers did too, in the Fantasy genre) and it has been praised, particularly on that already mentioned last sequence. Fantastic Beasts did win the BAFTA, but I tend to think that might have been British voting for the British (although its production design was truly wonderful). All things considered, there could be a surprise in this category.
Who should win: It is a tough choice. All of these films have created such wonderful worlds. I particularly loved Passengers design of the spaceship and Fantastic Beasts take on the American magical world. Hail, Caesar! had a great look, but didn’t quite impress me. And Arrival was great, too, but once again it didn’t stay with me in the same way. But if I had to think of a film in which the production design really took my breath away, I’d have to go with La La Land because, above it, that film is pretty.
Another close call, and there aren’t even only two frontrunners.
Who will win: Difficult to say. La La Land did get a Costume Designers Guild Award in its Contemporary category (unlike Jackie which lost to Hidden Figures, not even nominated in the Oscars; and Fantastic Beasts, that lost to Doctor Strange, also not nominated). But it is certainly difficult for a contemporary film to win this award. If we look into the BAFTAs, we see Jackie won. It also won the Critics’ Choice. So, relying on numbers and Oscars tendencies, I’d say Jackie is my (uncertain) bet.
Who should win: Jackie may have wonderful clothes (it is Jackie O after all), and La La Land is pretty but not extraordinary. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was for me the most outstanding in this category.
I am always surprised there are only three nominees in this category. Also, they have nothing to do with the rest of categories, so it is hard to predict in relation to the others.
Who will win: There is not much to consider, not that many awards consider Make Up and Hairstyling. I’d opt out A Man Called Ove, because The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared didn’t do that good last year and I consider they were nominated for similar reasons. Between Star Trek Beyond and Suicide Squad, they have both won some awards for their makeup. I’d say it also depends on the effort the voters see in the creations, so this would be a matter of Killer Croc (Suicide Squad) against Star Trek’s aliens. As I think Star Trek Beyond was an all-around better film and it did better with critics and audience, that is my bet.
Who should win: I honestly have no preference.
Who will win: Musicals always seem to be favourites in this category. Also, La La Land did win both an Eddie (Arrival also got one) and the Critics’ Choice. The race is also joined by BAFTA winner Hacksaw Ridge. As I think voters usually start voting on technical awards in group (they give them all to someone, look at Mad Max last year), I think La La Land will be it.
Who should win: I don’t really have a clear favourite here, but I did think Moonlight did a great job in pace, rhythm and structure. Its editing was really good, so that is my pick.
Sound Editing & Sound Mixing
Two categories not even the voters know how to differentiate, so it is tough to know what would win which. It is true musicals usually win Sound Mixing, whereas war/action films usually win Sound Editing. Also, I don’t know enough about sound to have a favourite, so I won’t make a personal judgement on who should win.
Who will win Sound Mixing: La La Land seems the favourite. It is a musical, which means there is a lot of work into the sound. It also has won a handful of sound awards already. Its fellow nominees are Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi. I can only think of Hacksaw Ridge as a competitor.
Who will win Sound Editing: As I said, bet for the war film, which in this case is Hacksaw Ridge. It doesn’t hurt it won a bunch of Golden Reel Awards. Its fellow nominees are Arrival, Deepwater Horizon, La La Land and Sully.
Who will win: The Jungle Book is the big favourite for this category. Its creation of all the animals is truly remarkable, so it isn’t that difficult of a choice. It also won on the BAFTAs and the Visual Effects Society.
Who should win: Although I enjoyed The Jungle Book and always love a Star Wars film, I found outstanding the visual effects behind Doctor Strange. It is probably one of the most creative things I have seen in a while.
Who will win: It seems La La Land is also the favourite here. Although it isn’t that common for a musical to win original score (surprising, huh?), its wins on the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice give it advantage over the BAFTA winner (Lion) and fellow nominees Moonlight, Jackie and Passengers.
Who should win: I loved La La Land’s music and couldn’t stop humming its soundtrack for weeks, so it is my pick, too.
Choosing a song is always a difficult thing. Do you have to consider the song by itself? In relation to what it does to the film, how it contributes to its storytelling? It is lucky when it’s a musical, but otherwise, it is tough to vote.
Who will win: La La Land’s City of Stars is the frontrunner. Everyone hums it everywhere. It is a memorable and lovely song. And although there could always be a surprise if the La La Land lovers divide in between its two nominated songs, I think it is mostly a safe bet.
Who should win: I love some of these songs, so it if tough. Although Trolls’ Can’t Stop the Feeling is cute, I don’t find it worthy of an Oscar (also happened with Happy). I really love Moana’s How Far I’ll Go, an instant Disney classic written by the one and only Lin-Manuel Miranda. The La La Land soundtrack made me fall in love and, although City of Stars is wonderful, I find the originality and sincerity of Audition (The Fools Who Dream) to be my favourite.
Here come the few categories which nominees I haven’t had the chance of seeing. So no personal opinions, just facts and predictions.
Who will win: It seemed Germany’s Toni Erdmann was the frontrunner, and Sweden’s A Man Called Ove was also well considered. But after Trump’s travel ban and controversy, I’d say Iran’s The Salesman seems like the probable winner. But don’t count the highly acclaimed Toni Erdmann out.
Who will win: O.J.: Made in America has been so praised it seems difficult it won’t win. It won the Critics’ Choice, the Directors Guild, the National Board of Review, the PGA… only thing it didn’t win was the BAFTA (13th won), but it wasn’t nominated. Consider Ava DuVernay’s 13th a true contender (after all, is has been highly acclaimed and it talks about a very relevant topic right now), but O.J. seems to have the lead.
Documentary (Short Subject)
Who will win: Not even the experts predict the shorts accurately. It is very difficult to know and these all talk about sensitive current topics. My pick, though, is The White Helmets.
Who will win: Again, difficult choice, but a bit easier. Pear Cider and Cigarettes has been highly praised, but it also has a more adult theme, and voters usually associate animation with a topic suitable for their kids. Also, as Pixar was absent from the big animated category this year, I’m inclined to think they will give them the award here as a consolation price, so Piper it is.
Who will win: Silent Night’s director has already won on this category twice. Timecode won in Cannes, but that doesn’t really mean that much. Sing seems to be one of the favourites, alongside Ennemis Intérieurs, a thriller that deals with immigration and terrorism in the 90s. The latter seems to be slightly on the lead, but only barely.
So these are my predictions. Who do you think will win? Who should win? Tune in to watch the biggest night in Hollywood and have fun!
PS: Am I going to be struggling in between Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington until the awards start? Probably.