Umbetitelt

[shocked--kwarrtz]

Sheafification of G (who is a really excellent math youtuber) sometimes opens his videos with "ladies, gentlemen, and the classically excluded middle," which is such a good bit that it honestly makes me kind of mad

[afloweroutofstone]

Foods costs are expected to rise at some point in the coming months once the shipping industry fully runs out of fuel reserves and wholesalers run out of existing stocks, causing the full inflationary impact of the Iran War to emerge. Shortly after that, on October 1, a new set of SNAP food aid cuts from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 will automatically go into effect. I think there is a real chance that hunger will emerge as a political issue by the end of this year (and if it doesn’t, then it should.)

One explanation I’ve heard for why the stock market has been so nonchalant about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is that they are fully convinced it will end before any of that happens. Someone (I think it was JP Morgan?) said in a recent release that the assumptions for their short-term inflation expectations are all based on the idea that Trump will pull back from the war at the exact right second and miraculously reopen the Strait in full. In their mind, Trump dragging the war out any longer than that would be committing economic suicide right before an election, and Trump as a rational actor would not allow that to happen. Buddy, do I got some news for you

[firebendinglemur]

JP Morgan sees Brent staying in low $100s even if Hormuz reopens in June

JP Morgan's revised framework assumes that ‌the pace ⁠of ⁠oil inventory depletion will ultimately force the Strait to reopen "one way or ano

JP Morgan expects Brent crude to remain in the low-$100s for much of 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in June, as accelerating inventory draws and logistical bottlenecks keep the oil market tight, the bank said in a note. JP Morgan's revised framework assumes that ‌the pace ⁠of ⁠oil inventory depletion will ultimately force the Strait to reopen "one way or another," ​with the bank's base case anchored on a June 1 reopening following a ​credible announcement confirmed by both sides.

[earnest-peer]

It's very funny not understanding why Brent isn't through the roof and trying to figure out what the money people are thinking that they're not in full panic mode, and so you check out a Bloomberg podcast (Odd Lots), and the specialists they're interviewing (Rory Johnston, Gregory Brew) are in full panic mode not understanding why Brent isn't through the roof

[boringkate]

You listen to music regularly? Why? Have you even tried quitting? Could you quit? You get music stuck in your head? Wow. You're so ruined and music brained. I bet you make your partners listen to music with you when you have sex. Music addiction has really ruined a whole generation. You know it's not realistic to expect reverb in real life, right? You're probably so desensitized that you don't even feel anything anymore when you hear a bird singing that it wants some fuck.

[paradigm-adrift]

I don't have a problem with people listening to music per se, but I do have a problem with the music industry exploiting & mistreating artists.

Personally, I abstain from all music in order to keep my hands clean but really music should just be illegal outright to protect musicians from abuse.

[terramythos]

holy shit this person in the notes

[lancrewizzard]

[frustratedasatruar]

What should children be spending their pocket change on, if not personal enjoyment?

[glasspalacesstoneshop]

Shorting the housing market

[oneheadtoanother]

[tachyon-log]

(USAmerican trying to imagine a societal environment) Okay, so picture a highway,

[fishmech]

inability to correctly perceive 3d objects is in fact far more dangerous when someone is driving a car next to you then when they're like, sending emails to you.

[bunniope]

can we focus on the gnome for a second

[bunniope]

wait sorry i was not wearing my glasses. that is a cat

[earnest-peer]

These are the people etc

[saja-star]

a phrase that kinda bothers me when talking about women's historical roles in europe is "cooking, cleaning, and taking care of the children." you hear it so often, those exact words in the same order even. and once you learn a little more you realize that the massive gaping hole in that list is fiberwork. im not an expert and have no hard numbers, but i wouldnt be surprised if fiberwork took up nearly as much time as the other three tasks combined, so it's not a trivial omission.

it's not a hot take to say that the mass amnesia about fiberwork is linked to the belittlement of women's work in geneal, but i do think there's a special kind of illusion that is cast by "cooking, cleaning, and taking care of the children." you hear that and think "well i cook and clean and take care of children (or i know someone who does) and i have a sense of how much work that is" and you know of course that cooking and cleaning were more laborious before modern technology, but still, you have a ballpark estimate you think, when in fact you are drastically underestimating the work load.

i also think that this just micharacterizes the role of women's work in livelihoods? cooking, cleaning, and taking care of the children are all sisyphean tasks that have to be repeated the next day. these are important, but not the whole picture. when we include all kinds of fiberwork—and other things, such as making candles or soap—women's work looks much more like manufacturing, a sphere we now associate more with men's work. i feel like women's connection to making and craftsmanship is often elided.

[queeranarchism]

And part of 'cooking' was brewing, pickling, preserving, fermenting..

Also memory-holed is how incredibly time-consuming laundry was and how much of it relied on physical strength.

[beatrice-otter]

Using a drop spindle to spin fiber into thread (which was the only way to spin thread until the spinning wheel made it to Europe in the 13th Century), and a warp-weighted loom to weave cloth, it takes a long time to turn fiber into finished items. (And even before you start spinning, you have to prepare the fibers, which is additional labor.) For an experienced adult, probably somewhere around 108 hours per square yard of fabric.

A simple dress or robe that covers an adult from shoulders to mid-calf will usually take about two yards of fabric.

Bret Devereaux lays this out if you're interested in looking deeper at the numbers: https://acoup.blog/2025/09/26/collections-life-work-death-and-the-peasant-part-ivd-spinning-plates/

[apricops]

also - however much effort you thought it took to “cook and clean” back then, it took way more than you thought. “Cleaning” clothes meant mending them by hand before taking them to the river, scrubbing them (with soap you made by hand), and hauling a heavy basket of wet clothes back to your home to wring and beat them dry. “Cooking” meant carrying your grain to the mill, carrying the flour back, sifting it, kneading dough by hand, and baking it, and that was just the bread. Then it’s back to the river (or well or cistern or whatever your water source was) to haul more heavy buckets of water before plucking birds, gutting fish, and harvesting vegetables from the garden, and only now can you actually start doing what we think of as “cooking.” With an open fire that you have to tend while cooking. All of this work had to be done every single day On top of childcare and the massive workload of spinning textiles. And any seasonal work like pickling or preserving fruits and vegetables. And any communal village tasks like rope making or construction. You know those memes that say “a peasant had x many holidays?” A “holiday” just meant that your family didn’t have to do free labor for your lord on top of everything I just mentioned. Medieval women were EXTREMELY busy with tasks that were often physically demanding and juggling multiple tasks at once all day every day.

Being a peasant sucked. It was really really really bad. Everyone say “thank you industrial revolution”

[sovietpostcards]

Yuri Gagarin, the hobbyist photographer, at home with his wife.

[ghostedmarshmallow]

Yuri Gagarin being identified only as an amateur photographer and not literally the first human in space has me on the floor

[o-craven-canto]

[o-craven-canto]

This is a good reminder that there is a lot of texture and complexity to people; every human contains lots of aspects that would be completely unrelated if not for the fact that the same person experiences them. It’s easy to forget this, and compress the people you meet into a caricature; even celebrities usually end up being famous for one thing alone. But even something as glorious as the first space travel by a living human does not fully encompass a life.

This, too, is Yuri.

[elodieunderglass]

This, too, is Yuri.

[goofstep]

everyone get unemployed. i will provide for us.

[throughfearandtrembling-deactiv]

I love how safe everyone in the comments feels about being entirely dependant on a potentially psychopathic benefactor 😁

[goofstep]

im nice…..

[junglejim4322]

He’s literally nice

[gpuzzle]

if you believe in the thucydides trap gtfoh and go study both the pelopponesian war and present great power competition

[regina-bithyniae]

What part do you mean?

In crisis bargaining theory, large power shifts are a major mechanism for making peaceful deals non-credible. If the established power thinks that the rising power will be able to force a bad enough deal on it in the future that this outweighs facing the costs of war now, then it would be better off fighting now.

But it's not just any power shift, needs to be a large one.

[regina-bithyniae]

And technically speaking it doesn't even need to be the weaker party becoming more powerful. If the weaker party expects to be even weaker in the future, they might have reason to go for it, too.

I'm very fond of crisis bargaining, it's both flexible for different contexts while being clear in its assumptions and conclusions. I made fun of William Spaniel years ago for being hilariously robotic and bland, but his videos have become much more expressive while still being very analytical. Strongly recommending the lines on maps guy.

[earnest-peer]

Strong recommendation for turning the lines on maps guy to 1.5x or 1.75x speed, he's good to listen to if you can bear it, and the monotone gets a lot less grating at higher speeds.

[garmbreak1]

You can't be in favour of subversive, shocking art *and* against art you find icky.

[videolottery]

Someone should make a disco elysium spiritual successor that takes place in a maze and follows a protagonist who has to eat all the dots in the maze whilst avoiding several ghosts

[dragongirlbunny]

you can actually homebrew this in d&d 5e

[multicore-processor]

One of the controversies around Subnautica 2 is that it's taken the first game's "no guns" stance and escalated to not having any way to kill any of the creatures that are constantly trying to kill you.

It's funny to me that this is motivated by the designers' personal anti-gun beliefs, but the actual experience of playing the game makes every player go "I really could use a gun here, actually".

And in the story (at least of the first game), the lack of weapons in the PDA blueprint database is clearly a case of your dystopian space capitalist bosses imposing their luxury beliefs on workers who pay the price for them. The developers expected the players to agree with the evil space capitalists here?

Just like you can't make an anti-war war movie, you can't make an anti-gun survival game.

[derinthescarletpescatarian]

[derinthescarletpescatarian]

This phrase has already entered my vocabulary re: media criticism where like. The viewer has a concrete view of what they expect a story to be based on the tropes and cliches they're used to seeing together, and when that doesn't happen, they judge it as a failed depiction of what they assumed it was going to be instead of judging it as what it actually is.

"This show is problematic because the hero didn't kill the villain at the end": When does he steal the bread?

"These two characters who were close friends throughout the series don't kiss at the end! What the fuck?": When does he steal the bread?

"This feels like it's missing a conclusion! Like, the protagonist does bad stuff and because of a critical decision he makes as a result of his major character flaws, meets tragedy in the end! Where's the part where he learns better and brings is love back from the dead and becomes a good guy and gets a happy ending?": When does he steal the fucking bread??

[argumate]

LLM psychosis is simply the democratisation of being surrounded by yes-men and unctuous toadies, an experience previously only accessible to dictators and kings and cult leaders and venture capitalists

[northshorewave]

Indeed. Truly your wisdom knows no bounds, my liege.

[discoursedrome]

the most merciful thing in the world is the inability of the mind to correlate its contents

realizing with some chagrin that "timorous" is to "timidity" as "humorous" is to "humidity"

[discoursedrome]

you know I think this random tendon injury might actually be what they call "tennis elbow". Which is good news not just because the standard treatment is "wait a while" but also because I really like having medical problems whose name implies that I got them from an athletic lifestyle. suckers, that shit just happened for no reason

[earnest-peer]

Oh you also got tennis arm?

[deadgenerations]

it's 'cool' that Muslims and Mormons use "modest" to mean basically the same thing - women should be neither seen nor heard, here's some clothing rules to reinforce that. and its extra cool that you'll typically see apologia for one from someone who condemns the other, and that you can usually predict which someone will apologise for based on their politics.

[no-sharks-on-the-sun]

agree with the main thrust of this post (modesty norms are evil across both, religion delenda est etc etc) but i have this lingering concern that which decisions are socially enforced and which are freely made is not a cleanly separable binary

[friendshapedhole]

Not cleanly separable but also clearly there is a difference.

So many leftoids try to smuggle in the “everything is cultural programming, there’s no such thing as free choice” to make a totalitarian defense of anything and it’s nonsense.

Choice is never 100% free but it can clearly be much more free in some situations than others. And it’s our duty to defend the partisans of more freedom against the partisans of less.

[earnest-peer]

Some degrees of unfreedom:

If you get murdered over making the wrong choice, how many people would approve of your murder?

What second order pressure is put on those around you? Is disassociation from you even enough for those around you to appease your critics?

Can you still be hired? Can you still access services?

Etc.

[daughter-of-sapph0]