If AI was magically able to build and maintain software, we’d have small companies that could build and deploy at the scale of a hyperscaler, and hyperscalers would, in theory, be expanding their margins so aggressively that it would create a new golden age of software revenues…or they’d become entirely infrastructure providers, as anybody else could compete on software.
But on a far-simpler level, it would be extremely obvious.
Anybody can access ChatGPT, Claude or Gemini, effectively anywhere in the world. The theoretical “power” of AI is that it “just does stuff,” and the proliferation of LLMs would mean that somebody would’ve “done” some “stuff” that we could point at with exceptional ease. Random guys in the midwest would be pumping out profitable, functional, and feature-rich software. Lawsuits would be won by pro se plaintiffs with incredible counsel from a theoretical “country of geniuses in a data center.”
Four years in, we’d have one major AI-powered company demolishing the competition in any industry, or every industry would become so prevalent with (powerful) AI that it would effectively reduce the cost of the service to nothing.
We’d be able to point to companies that adopted AI and then completely fucking exploded. We’d be able to point to useless coworkers who were now doing impressive, meaningful work.
There would be widespread economic upheaval, as the concept of a “large company” would lose meaning, because those theoretical “geniuses in the data center” would be automating all the work.”
There also wouldn’t be so many pieces insisting that AI is super powerful and so many quotes from Business Idiots saying it’s “real.” We wouldn’t talk about what AI could do at all. We wouldn’t need Anthropic to lie that Mythos was too powerful to release only to release it several months later.
We wouldn’t have to talk about the fucking potential at all because we’d be able to point to what was going on because it would be obvious!
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