Wow. I had honestly taken this statement at face value but if this is true then Bucky lying about the extent of what he remembers isn’t an isolated incident, it becomes a pattern, a strategy: Bucky intentionally and deliberately using his memories, the only thing he truly owns at this point, as a bargaining chip throughout the course of the movie to steer the events if not in his favor, then at the very least toward what he considers an acceptable outcome, namely sparing everyone else, and especially Steve, the pain of having to deal with his shit. We talk a lot about Bucky’s lack of agency, but this right here? This is him seizing and wielding the only tool at his disposal to exert some influence on the narrative, despite having been left with almost no options.
In Bucharest, he lies to make Steve go away. He wants Steve to distrust him, to give up on him, and the only way he can see of accomplishing that is to pretend that there’s not a “Bucky” anymore. He tries to shut Steve out completely, tries to not even look (and fails, but he’s only human) as Steve is escorted away from the glass cage. When he’s alone with the alleged psychologist though, he has no reason to think Steve’s listening and no reason to lie, so he tells the truth, a truth that is very important to him, especially in the face of being once again trapped and examined by people who look at him and see only a weapon: “my name is Bucky”.
Later, as he wakes up with his arm trapped in the vice, he is hurt and disoriented and so relieved when he sees Steve, that he can’t hide it. But it doesn’t matter, because he quickly realizes that there’s no point in pretending anymore: Steve has just done exactly what Bucky feared from the start: compromised himself for Bucky in a way that he can’t take back. And Sam too. They made their choice, stupidly, impossibly: they’re here for him. They need Bucky’s honesty now, or it will be all for nothing. So Bucky gives it to them. He finally tells Steve that he knows him, that he remembers him (the fact that it makes him so desperately happy to be able to recite every trivial little detail, every hard won scrap of memory that is a testament to how much Steve means to him, is made all the more heartbreaking by the fact that he only does it because it’s become necessary). He tells Steve and Sam about his encounter with Zemo, about the Siberian facility, about the making and training of the other Winter Soldiers. The three of them have a common objective now, a mission, and Bucky needs them, wants them, to trust him.
It’s clear that Bucky put a lot of effort into stitching together all the bits and pieces of memory he could dredge up. Remembering who he is, what has been done to him, what he’s been forced to do, is the only thing that can give him some measure of control. And having, and keeping, control of himself is the best he can do, for everybody. Does he already know that there are still things he’s missing? Or does he realize that only when he sees the beginning of that video? Does that realization make him feel like he’s failed all over again those people he couldn’t even remember killing?
Whatever the answer, if we believe Sebastian’s words, in that moment up there Bucky is choosing to lie again. Telling Tony what Tony wants to hear. Giving Tony the excuse Tony clearly is looking for to just go ahead and murder him. He has reached the conclusion that someone is going to die in that place, and he says what he hopes will ensure that that someone will be him.
