spoilers for sunrise on the reaping
Listen, as someone who shamelessly loves fan service I was surprised Suzanne Collins gave us any breadcrumbs at all but I was more than thrilled she got it out of the way in the first few chapters. To me it sent a message that while, yes, a lot of the fan theories were cannon after all, it wasn’t what this story was going to be about. This is very much a story about finding, losing, and regaining hope even when the cards are stacked against you. This is very plainly pointed out by Plutarch being able to spin the narrative and Wyatt constantly remarking on the odds of their situation. I think the direct parallels between Katniss and Haymitch’s life also underline the fact that there was nothing more special about Katniss than the rest of the victors - she just had what they never did, which was good timing.
I think the real tragedy of this story is that the rebellion movement was beginning well before Katniss was even alive. If the timing had been right, it would have been Haymitch that was the Mockingjay twenty five years before our story even begins. However, the victors failed. Whether it was due to Beetee’s obvious emotional investment in the planning. Or perhaps it underestimating the commitment of the Capitol to improve the Arena after Wiress embarrassed them in the prior year’s games. It doesn’t matter what particular thing prevented taking the arena down, at the end of the day they failed. Badly. And each of the victors paid a price for it. These prices sidelined them for years - decades for Haymitch at the very least.
Not only did they have to live with the failure of their plan, they also had to what the Capitol grow stronger and somewhat more competent. What really struck me while reading this was the fact that even by the 50th Hunger Games, the Capitol still seems to not quite have its shit together. The train to the is noted to be a little shabby as if it’s an old subway car and the District 12 tributes even seem less than impressed by their living quarters during training. We know from Katniss and Peeta’s games that the conditions only “improve” for the tributes over the years. All of this is definitely to fatten the pigs before the slaughter, but I can’t imagine how disheartening it must have felt for the victors who could see the incompetence of the Capitol only becoming more efficient and powerful every year as more kids died. Not to mention that they had to guide those kids to their deaths under these conditions as well. No wonder they lost hope over the years and put their aspirations of freeing the Districts from the Capitol because who would know better about the human cost of this fight better than the victors? They all know that the cards are stacked against them and the odds aren’t in their favor, so they more or less fall in line.
Then comes Katniss. She instantly stirs Haymitch awake by reminding him of Louella, not to mention the fact of the emotional connection he has to her father. I think she eventually even reminds him of Maysilee by fighting back against Haymitch on the train after he immediately writes them off as two more kids doomed to die in the arena because he has seen it so many times before. Because Katniss and Peeta are no more different or special than any of the tributes that have come before them. I think the other victors no doubt were reminded of a young Haymitch once they saw Katniss in action during the games. She’s openly rebellious to the leaders before the game but instead of scoring low on their assessment as Haymitch did, she gets the top marks. She is protective of “weaker” contestants like Rue just as Haymitch tried his best to protect Louella, Ampert, and Wellie. I think it’s Rue’s death and Katniss taking the time to honor her before her body is whisked off by the Capitol and wakes everyone back up again. It’s not that Katniss is doing anything new or different than the people who came before her, she just reminded them of all the injustices they have endured for over fifty years. It’s a long list of people who not only died during the Hunger Games, but their loved ones who were killed to crush their hopes and kept them fearful. It just goes to the timing where everyone - the victors and the citizens of the Districts - have had enough and it opens up the door to hope again. Even though the Capitol is stronger than ever and the deck is stacked against them, they decide to screw the odds and fight back anyway.
Also, because of their failures, the victors are able to learn from their mistakes during the Second Quarter Quell. Nobody understands Katniss better than Haymitch and he knows that if she is informed on the rebel plans ahead of the 75th Games, their cover will be blown because she is not a natural liar or actress. As a result, she and Peeta are kept in the dark about the plot to take down the arena and I think this was critical to the success of the plot. I wish Haymitch’s epilogue gave us a bit more into the planning and scheming the victors did ahead of the games to make sure their plan didn’t completely fail again, but it’s safe to assume that Beetee, Wiress, and Mags also had their own learnings from their failed scheme that helped take down the arena and start a revolution twenty five years later.
Now I think the themes of going against the odds even when it’s hopeless are really plainly stated here but I think the similarities in Katniss and Haymitch’s stories aren’t just fan service but essential to the plot. Which I think given today’s political climate - particularly in the U.S. - is exactly the point Suzanne is trying to make. Now, I know there is a whole debate on TikTok on whether books are political…which is a a thing people truly believe these days. However, this series has always been political and I think the timing of both “A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” and “Sunrise on the Reaping” being released over ten years after this series has been completed is no accident. Similarly to Katniss not being the first person to experience the trauma of the games and being a target of Snow, everything happening today in the U.S. is not the first time or place where something like this has happened. I think this story is meant to encourage people to keep their hope even when it feels futile and naive.
