Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today’s statistical map - our second look at the likes-dislikes ratio on this year’s Eurovision songs, and our first for almost a month! As with every year, the majority of songs tend to improve their likes-dislike ratio with time, and that is no different this year: on average, each song improved its likes-dislikes by 5.33% in the last month, with only a scant few songs gaining more dislikes than likes in the interim.
Last month, only 17 of the 43 nations had a ratio of likes to dislikes that was 85%-15% or better: this number has since swollen to 24. Where once there were 12 songs with a ratio of 1 dislike to every 3 likes or worse, there now is 10. Of the ten most “reacted on” videos, most songs have 85% likes or higher - no surprise given the huge quantity of likes given so far: this year’s songs have been given over half a million likes (514,157) compared with little over 0.1 million dislikes (114,094) - meaning that the average video picked up almost 12 thousand likes compared to around 2,600 dislikes.
So, which countries have risen and fell the most in terms of their likes? The vast majority of countries have only seen a modest improvement of 2-3% in their likes-dislikes ratio, but one quarter saw drastic changes of 20% or more: Croatia’s percentage of likes rose proportionally by 21.4%; Romania’s by 25%, Slovenia’s by 49.2% and Georgia’s by a colossal 57.9%. What all this quartet have in common is a lukewarm (Romania) to largely negative reception when first released - especially the biggest growers, Slovenia and Georgia, who had been two of the fateful five who had 60% likes or less.
What they also have in common is a late music video release - an interesting tactic to deflect a negative fanbase response which we see every year: a song’s national final performance garners a number of heated, negative responses over time; they release a official music video later in the season which almost inevitably attracts fewer people who hated the song. Spain, with a 7.8% proportional increase in likes and a national final performance video still attracting those who feel short-changed, arguably joins the four aforementioned countries having done the same.
Below this quintet are an interesting group of 5 nations whose likes-dislikes ratio has improved proportionally by 5% or more. Some are hotly tipped by the bookies - France, Australia and Armenia - whilst some are less so: Ireland sees a 5.8% increase whilst Montenegro’s rise is of 6.8%, enough to finally crack 50% likes and to leave Lithuania as the only country now with more dislikes than likes.
On the other side of the table is Poland, whose likes-dislikes ratio has oddly not changed at all, and an unlucky five whose likes-dislikes ratio has worsened over the past month. For the UK and Belarus, both of which have a high proportion of likes, the loss is a subtle -0.2%, but Ukraine’s worsens by 0.9%, Greece’s by 1.4% and the biggest drop is that of San Marino, its dislikes increasing by 2.2%.
A full data table can be found below! Last year, by the day before semi-finals, no song had more likes than dislikes, and only 10 songs had fewer than 70% likes. This year already only 6 songs are below that point - I wonder if we’ll see almost all songs with 70% likes or more by semi-finals or whether some songs will continue to keep accruing more dislikes than likes.
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