Transcribing the full thread for those without Twitter:
I've debated sharing this, but I got a 2nd trusted source last night, so it feels right to share now: Folks keep asking me how close it came to being greenlit. WAY Closer than you can imagine. In late Dec posting for preproduction hires in NZ went live. May-Sept shoot listed.
As is industry standard, the production name was not listed in the postings, but it was indicated as a queer/pirate/Max production. In NZ. Everyone knew what it was for. This was just how these job posting were listed for S2. The postings were live until at least Dec 28.
When we put this together with other info we have gotten: scripts or outlines had been commissioned, NZ tax and cultural teams had been active in prep for s3, the coy SM posts, the fact that key cast members were scheduled for FYC interviews up through late Dec...
A clearer picture of at least the timeline emerges. That timeline still doesn't make sense to me. Yes, a core issue became the viability of the IP beyond a 3rd season with the leads, but EVERYTHING I heard for 2 solid months from Max & industry folk was CONFIDENT
I didn't hear much over Christmas, but well, it was Christmas and I had COVID and also, the last intel I had heard was that we were now firmly in "when" not "if" territory. More press was going to be scheduled after the holidays. Great. That lined up with my late January forecast
I didn't ever even consider the fact that the little industry trickles dried up between Christmas and New Years because 1. What more was there to say? The analytics were superlative. Everyone was game. I didn't have any concerns that the line went dead around that week. Holidays!
What now appears clear is that something fairly significant happened during advanced talks and negotiations. I don't know for sure which side walked, but also I do not see a plausible scenario where it wasn't Max & likely Zaz himself that bailed. Bloys & others FOUGHT for Flag.
I've said this before and I'll say this again: I have ragged on Casey Bloys before in the context of other things he has done in the industry, but one thing that has emerged this week is a portrait of a man trying to save Max from the madman that is David Zazslav.
Speculative: I think Casey was the most high level, high enthusiasm advocate for getting Flag a third and final season. I think Zaz only wants properties he can milk years of profit out of. I know Zaz is still pissed about Succession ending early & leaving cash on the table.
Things were in much more advanced stages for renewal than has been publicly reported. The data analytics for Flag are OUTSTANDING. Other streamers should know this. Other streamers should be cutting a check, even if they say they are belt tightening
The fact SO much work had been done on a 3rd season is an EXCELLENT signifier in the overall confidence in the property. Zaz's bad math on long term profitability might have been what sank the ship, but that doesn't mean she's not seaworthy. It just means he's bad at his job.
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