just another fundie snarker

Millie. Ivy Seewald enthusiast + Tumblr overuser.  

[duggardata]

Kaylee Rodrigues is Courting Jonathan Hill!

Get The Data Here.

On Monday, September 13, 2021, Jill Rodrigues announced via Facebook Live that her 2nd Eldest Daughter (Kaylee, 20) is courting Jonathan Hill, 21.  To date, Jill hasn’t revealed the story of the courtposal, or when it happened, but here is my best attempt to analyze the data anyway!

When Did Jonathan “Courtpose”?

Honestly, we don’t know.  They haven’t said.  However, we do know that J–Rod  ‘teased’ this Courtposal Announcement on September 10, 2021.  So…  It’s very, very, very likely that they were already courting, by then.  And while it’s possible that Jill waited to announce their courtship for some reason…  She’s not exactly known for her discretion.  So, Duggar Data thinks there’s a good chance Kaylee + Jonathan began courting on September 10 (Friday), and Jill immediately took to Facebook / Instagram to promise “BIG NEWS” on Monday.

Until better data is available, Duggar Data is going to use September 10, 2021 as Kaylee + Jonathan’s Approximate ‘Courtposal’ Date.

Age At Courtship

Kaylee’s DOB is July 5, 2001.  Jonathan’s DOB is July 30, 2000.  Based on their Approximate ‘Courtposal’ Date of September 10, 2021, here is how old each of them was, at the time—

Kaylee   Age 20.18  (20 Years, 2 Months, 5 Days)

Jonathan   Age 21.11   (21 Years, 1 Month, 11 Days)

Other than Kaylee + Jonathan, the only other Rodrigues Couples, so far, are Jill + David and Nurie + Nathan.  We know the Exact DOBs for all of them.  (Jill’s is November 3, 1978; David’s is May 29, 1972.  Nurie’s is April 19, 1999; Nathan’s is April 23, 1996.)  And…  We have Approximate ‘Courtposal’ Dates, for both of them.  (For Jill + David, it is February 6, 1997—i.e., ~8 Months (240 Days) Prior to their Wedding Date.  For Nurie + Nathan, it’s June 11, 2019.)  With a little bit of quick math, here are the Ages At C.S. (for Males)—

David   Age 24.69

Nathan   Age 23.13

Jonathan   Age 21.11

… and, the Ages at C.S. (for Females)—

Jill   Age 18.26

Nurie   Age 20.15

Kaylee   Age 20.18

Pre–Kaylee + Jonathan the Average Age at C.S. for Males was 23.91 Years, and for Females it was Age 19.20.  Factoring K + J in, it shifts a bit…  For Males, it’s now Age 22.98 (–0.93 Years / 341 Days), and for Females it’s Age 19.53 (+0.33 Years / 119 Days).  As a result of this, Male Rodriguii as now expected to court 341 Days Earlier and Female Rodriguii are expected to court 119 Days Later.

Interestingly, Kaylee is the Oldest Rodrigues Female to begin courting, thus far, while Jonathan is the Youngest Male.

Age Gap

Given their Exact DOBs of July 30, 2000 and July 5, 2001, Jonathan + Kaylee have an Age Gap of 340 Days (or 0.93 Years), favoring Jonathan.  Here’s how that stacks up with the other 2 Rodrigues Couples—

Jill + David   2,349 Days (or 6.43) Years Apart / Male is Older

Nurie + Nathan   1,091 Days (or 2.99 Years) Apart / Male is Older

Kaylee + Jonathan   340 Days (or 0.93 Years) Apart / Male is Older    

Pre–Kaylee + Jonathan, the Average Age Gap was 1,720 Days (or 4.71 Years), favoring the man.  Now, it’s 1,260 Days (or 3.45 Years), favoring the man.

When Will Jonathan Propose?

Well, let’s look at the data!  David proposed to Jill on or about May 4, 1997.  At that time, they’d been courting for ~87 Days.  Meanwhile, Nathan proposed to Nurie on November 9, 2019.  At that point, they’d been courting for ~151 Days.  Taking the average, that’s 119 Days.

Based on this, and their Approximate Courtposal Date of September 10, 2021, Jonathan is forecast to propose on January 7, 2022.

When Will They Get Married?

Again, here’s the data:  J–Rod + David married on October 4, 1997, after being engaged for ~153 Days.  Nurie + Nathan married on July 25, 2020, after being engaged for 259 Days.  Taking the average, it’s 206 Days.

Doing the math…  If Jonathan proposed on January 7, 2022, his and Kaylee’s Projected Wedding Date would be August 1, 2022…  But, that’s a Monday, so let’s instead go with July 30, 2022.  (Jonathan’s 22nd Birthday!)  

When To Expect Hill #1 / ESOQ

Based on the data, here’s what to expect—

Baby News   December 22, 2022

Due Date   August 12, 2023

Birthdate   August 13, 2023

… and, their ESOQ is 13 Children, which is exactly the same number as each of their families has!

[blessedladyplexus]

Zach and Whitney Bates IG

[duggardata]

Time to Leave Josh, Anna!

It’s Josh + Anna (Keller) Duggar’s 13th Anniversary.

[ihaveafundamentalproblem]

Couldn’t have put it better myself

[blessedladyplexus]

Josie Balka IG Stories

[totallyrobophobic]

HER HAIR IS UP! I REPEAT, ESTHER'S HAIR IS UP

[notfun-damental]

🚨THIS IS NOT A DRILL🚨

[blessedladyplexus]

Katie Bates IG / Josie Balka IG Stories / Carlin Stewart IG Stories

[blessedladyplexus]

Alyssa Webster IG

[duggardata]

Kaylee Rodrigues is Courting!

Today at 3:00 PM E.T., Jill Rodrigues announced via Facebook Live that 2nd–Eldest Daughter, Kaylee , 20, is “officially courting” a man named Jonathan Hill. Per the video, they’ve been “getting to know” one another since “this past spring.”

According to Kaylee, Jonathan’s Family is extremely similar to her… Both families have 13 Children—9 Boys + 4 Girls for the Hills, and 9 Girls + 4 Boys for the Rodriguii. Kaylee also states that “all of [their] beliefs line up with our beliefs.”

After a bit of sleuthing on Jill’s Facebook, Duggar Data came across this Post, mentioning a “Pastor Hill.” Immediately after, Jill said that the Rodrigues Family had just enjoyed a visit to a Mississippi church called Faith Baptist Church. Thinking these are probably connected, Duggar Data found Faith Baptist’s website, and confirmed that their pastor is a “Pastor Hill"—specifically, Pastor Robert Hill, Jr. Also, the webpage conveniently provides information about the Hill Family. It turns out, Pastor Hill has a son, Robert Hill III, who has 13 Children (9 Boys + 4 Girls) with his wife, Sarah… Duggar Data is pretty sure that Robert Hill III + Sarah are Jonathan’s parents.

More details to come!

[notfun-damental]

I’m so happy for her! After all Kaylee’s been through with Jill being...herself...she deserves some fun and some happiness.

[duggardata]

Jill posted her typical “guess the announcement” post, based on the data which of the 5 options is most likely to be announced on Monday? .1. Baby # 14 ?2. Nathan & Nurie had their baby ?3. Timothy in a courtship ?4. Kaylee in a courtship ?5.

Breaking: Rodrigues Announcement Coming Monday!

Indeed, she did! And thanks for the Ask!

Renee and Kaylee are both slightly overdue for Courtships, so that's what I'd guess. Could also be Timothy, though... The Predictor isn't forecasting a courtship for him just yet, but the only Age at CS data it's working with is Nurie + Nathan's... So, that't not much to go on.

It's also possible Nurie had the baby, but she'd be >1 Month Early. I hope that's not the case and, if it is, that the baby is okay. (And the mother, Nurie!) Her Due Date isn't until October 12.

If it's Rodrigues #14, I'm here for it. Man, would that be fun! Lol. (I doubt this will happen, though... Jill + David are currently 4.85 SDs Late to announce.)

[fundiebabynamebible]

I think courtship for Kaylee or baby 14. If the baby is here already I guess I think Jill would announce it straight away. Kaylee has been seen with a guy multiple times over the past few months.

[fundietrash]

Based on this photo from last month, I’m going to venture out and say it’s #14

[notfun-damental]

I hope it’s not Rodlet no. 14, just for the kid’s sake.

[spurgie-cousin]

Why do they always do this shit at like 3pm on a work day lol

[notfun-damental]

Why has Jill done the guessing/FB live reveal three times now?

[duggardata]

Happy Birthday, David W.!

Today is David William Waller’s 35th Birthday.  David was born to Brian + Sue (Blom) Waller on September 8, 1986.  He is Waller #5 of 10.  In February 2012, David married Priscilla Keller in Hilliard, Florida.  They now live in Texas, where they are raising 5 Children—Paul, Davia, Phillip, Destiny, and Peter.  Priscilla is also pregnant with their 6th Child, due in Mid–January 2022. 

Congrats to the Pecan Thief for another year on the straight and narrow.

[mintytrifecta]

[themduggars]

[notfun-damental]

I’m so concerned for their child- let’s hope it’s a boy.

[duggardata]

I remember you doing a post on Alyssa beating Erin with child #5. When does the predictor say she’ll take the lead now? Or will it be someone else?

Childbearing Race:  When Will Erin Lose The Lead, and To Whom?  (2021 Update)

[ Referenced Post: When Will Erin Lost The Lead, And To Whom? (2019) ]

Currently, Erin is ‘winning’ the Bates Childbearing Race with 4 Children + 1 On The Way, but Whitney and Alyssa are gaining on her.  Each has 4 Children and isn’t currently known to be expecting.  So...  Who will take the lead and when?  Here’s what’s expected, as of August 31, 2021—

If Paine #5 is Erin + Chad’s Last Biological Child—

Recently, Erin suffered ruptured ovarian cysts, requiring surgical interventions.  By January 2021, she’d undergone surgery to have “one ovary ... and most of [the] second” removed.  As a result, Erin + Chad believed they’d be unable to have any more biological children.  As Erin explained to Us Weekly—

“To ever get pregnant again would be, like, a huge miracle because I basically have one third of an ovary left, but it’s very scarred from three surgeries.  So at this point, it’s not in the question at all, which is sad because me and Chad always talked about having at least 10 children, but you never know what God has for the future.”

Despite this, Erin miraculously became pregnant with Paine #2, and will likely deliver in January.  It’s unclear if Paine #5 really is a “huge miracle,” and Erin likely won’t be able to conceive again, or if her fertility was less affected than she thought...  So, let’s run through both scenarios!

If Paine 5 is the Final Paine, here’s when the Predictor expects the rest of the Bates to ‘catch up’ to Erin...

1–26–22   Paine #5 is born, establishing Erin’s lead with 5 Children.  At this point, neither Alyssa nor Whitney has announced Pregnancy #5.

3–02–22   ... but, that doesn’t last long.  About 1 Month later, Alyssa + John announce Pregnancy #5.

7–31–22   Webster #5 is born to Alyssa + Chad, so they’re tied with the Paines.  Whitney still hasn’t announced.  She’s lagging behind.

11–12–22   Whitney finally announced Pregnancy #5.

05–25–23   Bates–Perkins #5 born to Zach + Whitney. 

08–21–23   Alyssa takes the lead by announcing Pregnancy #6.  Erin + Chad and Zach + Whit still have only 5 Children Each, and either can’t get pregnant (Erin) or aren’t yet pregnant again (Whitney).

01–19–24   Webster #6 born to Alysas + John, and they officially seize the lead from the Paines.  (Whitney won’t even announce Pregnancy 6 until October...  She’s lagging behind again, and won’t catch up.)

Alyssa will maintain her lead for several years, but Tori + Bobby will gradually close the gap...  Smith #6 will arrive ~16 Months after Webster #6, and every subsequent Smith and Webster will be closer and close in age until...

10–05–36   Tori + Bobby announce Pregnancy #15 before the Websters.  This is the first time this has ever happened.

11–13–36   Alyssa + John announce Pregnancy #15, but they are going to lost their lead; Alyssa is due after Tori.

03–20–37   It’s official.  Tori overtakes Alyssa.  She and Bobby will keep their lead until their fertility runs out.

If Paine #5 Isn’t Erin + Chad’s Last Biological Child—

Okay, but...  What is Erin + Chad actually aren’t infertile, and Paine #5 isn’t “a huge miracle” that’ll never recur.  If that’s the case and they maintain their PP, here’s what the Predictor expects to occur...

Erin + Chad will maintain their current lead, though the gap will slowly close over the years.  Their rivals will be Alyssa + John and Tori + Bobby.  (Zach + Whitney won’t be much competition, at all...  By Paine #6, the Paines will be ‘ahead’ by nearly 2 Years, and their lead will only grow.)  Here’s when things start to get interesting, and the Paines’ lead will be threatened...

12–28–26   Webster #6 born to Alyssa + John, <6 Months After Erin + Chad had Paine #6, thus establishing Alyssa as a serious rival.  They never take the lead, but they’ll slowly close the gap over the years.

08–05–34   Smith #13 is born to Tori + Bobby, <6 Months after Erin + Chad had Paine #13.  Again, Erin has a clear rival!

09–03–35   Erin’s 14th + Final Child is born, and is quickly followed by Webster #14 (6 Weeks Later), and Smith #14 (1 Month After That).  The Paines are officially retired from the Procreative Race!

10–05–36   Tori + Bobby are first to announce Pregnancy #15, which effectively blocks the Websters from ever taking the lead.  (Harsh!  A power move if I’ve ever seen one!)

11–13–36   Alyssa + John announce Pregnancy #15, too late!

03–20–37   Smith #15 is born, and Tori officially overtakes Erin, while edging out Alyssa for good.  Tori will never lose her lead, nor will she experience any true competition from any of her sisters or SILs.  Tori + Bobby will end up with 18 Children—a feat that’ll be matched by one sister (Katie, 5 Years Later), but never beaten.

In the end, the real winner will be Kelly Jo, because none of her children will manage to reach Child #19, let alone the elusive #20.

[precious-and-neat-fundies]

Jedidiah Duggar's Instagram: September 5, 2021

[fundiewiki]

the caption...

[spurgie-cousin]

Is this the first time a Rodrigues beat a Duggar to something trendy lol?

[notfun-damental]

The first and only, I’m sure.

[fundiebabynamebible]

Duggar People Article - September 2021

[fundiebabynamebible]

I had to reblog to add the rest but here it is. Enjoy.

[jingersnosescrunch]

Before and after pictures of Katie and Travis’ house. I absolutely hate this trend.

Source Katie Bates September 1st 2021

[countingandsnarkingon]

The white paint makes it looks like a shack.

[duggardata]

The Next 6 Months:  September 2021–February 2022

Here we go again!  It’s your monthly installment of “The Next 6 Months.”  Just ahead—

What happened last month (August 2021)?  Was it early, late, or what?

Did anyone miss a deadline in August 2021?  Who, and for what?

Who all is “late” for their next event, and what’s their next deadline?

What’s forecast from now through February 2022?

Latest Events—

Carlin (Bates) + Evan Stewart announced Pregnancy #2 on August 30, 2021 via E! News, YouTube, and Carlin’s IG.  Apparently, Carlin is due in April; Duggar Data is using April 9, 2022 as an ADD.  (Data Analysis.)

Erin (Bates) + Chad Paine shocked everyone by announcing that Erin is pregnant, despite multiple ovarian surgeries.  People got the exclusive on August 24.  Duggar Data is using February 22, 2022 as the ADD.  (Data Analysis.  Note—Her ADD shifted after the Initial Analysis.)

Priscilla (Keller) + David Waller announced Pregnancy #6 pretty much right on time, on August 17, 2021.  Priscilla is due in January 2022, and Duggar Data is using January 22nd as an ADD.  (Data Analysis.  Note—Priscilla’s ADD shifted after the Initial Analysis.)

Jennifer (Hartono) Toto, a close friend of the Duggars, announced her 1st Pregnancy on August 14, 2021.  She’s due on February 16, 2022.

Duggar Data officially stopped following Karissa + Mandrae Collins on August 14, 2021.  Sorry to anyone who is disappointed by this! 

Courtney + Christoper Rogers confirmed that they’re expecting Rogers #12 on August 7, 2021, after teasing it for a few days.  Courtney is due in Early March, and Duggar Data is using March 5, 2022 as a ADD.  (Data Analysis.)

Nathan Bates + Esther Keyes shared via Esther’s Instagram Story (on August 4, 2021) that they’ll be tying the knot on October 22, 2021.

Kristen + Justin Young did a Sex Reveal for Young #4 on August 1st…  It’s a girl.  Kristen is due in December.  Duggar Data is using December 16, 2021 as her ADD.

Just Missed A Deadline—

The Couples below weren’t ‘late,’ but now are…

Meagan (Forsyth) + Bobby Ballinger did not announce Pregnancy #4 on August 4, which would’ve been On–Time.  Their Rescheduled Date (RD) is September 22, 2021 (+0.5 SD).

Joy–Anna (Duggar) + Austin Forsyth failed to announce Pregnancy 3 On–Time, on August 13.  Their RD is October 26, 2021 (+0.5 SD).

Joshua + Cassidy (Bowers) Bontrager didn’t announce Pregnancy #3 on August 28, which would’ve been On–Time.  Their RD is November 6, 2021 (+0.5 SD).

Renée Rodrigues was due to start courting on August 31, but nothing has been announced.  Her RD is May 1, 2022 (+0.5 SD).

The Couples below were already ‘late,’ and just missed another deadline…

Jesse + Anna P. (Craig) Maxwell failed to announce Pregnancy #1 on August 4 (+1.5 SDs).  Their RD is September 29, 2021 (+2 SDs).

Sierra + Mark Dominguez still haven’t announced Pregnancy #8, and missed another deadline on August 11 (+2.5 SDs).  Their RD is October 19, 2021 (+3 SDs).  

Josiah + Lauren (Swanson) Duggar once again didn’t announce their 2nd Pregnancy…  They were expected to do so on August 14 (+2 SDs).  Their RD is now October 27, 2021 (+2.5 SDs).

John + Abbie (Burnett) Duggar didn’t announce Pregnancy #2 on the +0.5 SD RD of August 23, 2021.  RD is November 4, 2021 (+1 SD).

Esther (Keller) + John Shrader failed to announce Pregnancy #13 on August 30, 2021 (+1.5 SDs).  Their RD is October 19, 2021 (+2 SDs).

What’s Next?  (September 2021–February 2022)—

09–01–21   Justin + Claire (Spivey) Duggar announce Pregnancy #1.

09–02–21   Priscilla (Keller) + David Waller do a Sex Reveal for Waller #6.

09–05–21   Stephen Wissmann proposes to Jana Duggar.  (Assumes they started courting at Christmas 2020.)

09–21–21   Erin (Bates) + Chad Paine due a joint Sex + Name Reveal for Paine #5.

09–24–21   Lawson Bates ‘courtposes’ to Tiffany Espensen.  (Assumes they’ve been pre–courting, rather than courting, since September.)

09–29–21   Jesse + Anna Patrice (Craig) Maxwell announce Pregnancy #1.  (2 SDs Late!)

10–03–21   Jennifer (Hartono) + Josh Toto do a Sex Reveal for Toto #1.

10–07–21   Jed + Katey (Nakatsu) Duggar announce Pregnancy #1.

10–14–21   Courtney + Christopher Rogers do a Sex Reveal for Rogers #12.

10–16–21   Keller–Rodrigues #1 born to Nurie (Rodrigues) + Nathan Keller.

10–19–21   Sierra + Mark Dominguez announce Pregnancy #8.  (3 SDs Late!)

10–19–21   Esther (Keller) + John Shrader announce Pregnancy #13.  (2 SDs Late!)

10–22–21   Nathan Bates marries Esther Keyes.  (Confirmed.)

10–24–21   Joseph + Elissa Maxwell announce Pregnancy #4.

10–25–21   Anna Elizabeth Maxwell starts courting.  (2.5 SDs Late!)

10–26–21   Joy + Austin (Forsyth) Duggar announce Pregnancy #3.  (0.5 SD Late!)

10–27–21   Josiah + Lauren (Swanson) Duggar announce Pregnancy #2.  (2.5 SDs Late!)

11–04–21   John + Abbie (Burnett) Duggar announce Pregnancy #2.  (1 SD Late!)

11–06–21   Joshua + Cassidy (Bowers) Bontrager announce Pregnancy #3.  (0.5 SD Late!)

11–17–21   Duggar–Keller #7 born to Josh + Anna (Keller) Duggar.  (But, this is based on a very, very speculative Due Date.)

11–24–21   Carlin (Bates) + Evan Stewart due a joint Sex + Name Reveal for Stewart #2.

11–26–21   Denver + Praise (Helferich) Bontrager announce Pregnancy #1.

12–03–21   Katie Bates marries Travis Clark.  (Confirmed.)

12–04–21   Lauren Caldwell starts courting.

12–10–21   Jana Duggar marries Stephen Wissmann.

12–11–21   David Keller marries Hannah Reber.  (Confirmed.)

12–15–21   Young #4 born to Kristen + Justin Young.

12–23–21   Joe + Kendra (Caldwell) Duggar announce Pregnancy #4.

01–16–22   Kaylee Rodrigues starts courting.  (1 SD Late!)

01–26–22   Waller #6 born to Priscilla (Keller) + David Waller.

01–26–22   Paine #5 born to Erin (Bates) + Chad Paine.

02–22–22   Lauren Caldwell gets engaged.

Nothing New For—

Bateses   Zach + Whitney, Alyssa + John, Tori + Bobby, Trace, Josie + Kelton, Jackson to Jeb

Bontragers   Chelsy + John, Mitchell + Bryn, Allison + Jeremiah, Carson + Carolina, Taylor to Rebecca

Caldwells   Micah to Moriah

Duggars   Jessa + Ben, Jinger + Jeremy, Jer, Jason, James, Jackson to Josie

Maxwells   Mary Maxwell

Rodriguii   Timothy, Renee, Phillip to Janessa

Prediction is halted for Jill + Derick Dillard [Birth Control], Michaela + Brandon Keilen [Infertility], and Chris + Anna Marie Maxwell [Anna Marie’s Cancer], and Sarah Maxwell [Age].  Prediction was halted for Erin (Bates) + Chad Paine due to their representation that they could no longer conceive—but has started up again, since that’s apparently not the case.

The Predictor assumes that all of the following couples’ quivers are complete:  Gil + Kelly Bates, Marlin + Becky Bontrager, Paul + Christina Caldwell, J.B. + Michelle Duggar, Mike + Suzette Keller, Steve + Teri Maxwell, Nathan + Melanie Maxwell, and Jill + David Rodrigues.