I would say if there is a number one fan for Spot it would be you. I want to ask that do you have any theories about what might happen to Spoy in BTSV. Maybe how they could beat him or can he have a chance in redemption?
My general prediction for Spot isn't exactly a "redemption", more so him coming to some kind of understanding and deciding to stop being actively hostile. I think he's a little too messed up to switch back into being a good guy in just one movie, so I expect it to be more of a conversation between him and Miles that changes his perspective. I'd like an open ended second chance, where the movie doesn't explicitly tell you what he does with it.
I used to be on board with the idea of him hypothetically dying as long as it was well written and he was done justice by the narrative, but over time I've realized that might be impossible or at the very least very tricky. I'll keep an open mind, but I'm skeptical of the implications. Spot is the parallel character to Miles, he was written to mirror his struggles so that the audience would connect and empathize with him the same way. Spot has a darker conclusion, because he doesn't have the support of any family or community like Miles does he succumbs to his issues rather than rising above them. An ending where he dies because he's "too far gone" or just generally isn't given any grace by the story would feel a little too nihlistic for the franchise's overall tone. It's been done to death, and a more emotional resolution would be nice for Miles's arc given his initial mistake with Spot was an unwillingness to connect with him on an emotional level.
I also lean towards the emotional resolution theory as Spot in his Abyss form appears to be a pretty clear mental health metaphor. In ATSV he draws comparison between his feeling of emptiness with his holes, and says that the only way to fill that up is with more holes. This is what he ends up doing, as the movie goes on he gets more and more portals until he is entirely covered in them as Abyss, and he starts to lose the kindness he once had more and more as he does so. With the brief moments we've seen of him in the Abyss form he appears to constantly be in pain, jerking limbs around and splitting them in half. Character design wise it is very unlikely they did that just to make him seem scarier, there's a clear intentionality to it.
There's also just no way Miles's parents die. I'd bet money on it. Jeff won't die because they showed us that exact thing happening, at the very least there has to be some extra context that paints the vision we saw in a new light. When showing a future vision there almost always has to be some kind of subversion. I also really dislike the theory that Rio will die in his place, it changes almost nothing as Miles would be just as heartbroken and it'd feel like a very lazy way to subvert the audience's expectations for shock value. The next film, just from the CinemaCon stills that were released, appears to have an emotional focus on the Morales family and I doubt that exists only to build up a sad death. I often see people claim they showed Miles's emotional connection with his mom so that it hurts more when she dies, which is also a very flat way to look at storytelling. They emphasized his love for his parents so that it would be more impactful when he overcomes the Spider Society turning him away, similarly to how they emphasized his love for his family so that he could defeat Kingpin in the first film.
People seem to think someone has to die because of the "you can't always save everybody" line from the first film, but I disagree. "Can't always" does not equal "can never." Miles is aware of the inability to always save everyone, but his mentality is rooted in always trying to anyways.
My strongest theory is that Spot will fight the Spider Society in the first half of the movie, causing him to become more and more agitated in his Abyss form until he becomes less like himself and more of a force of nature, becoming more monster like as his mental state becomes strained. When we first see him as Abyss, he's coherent and calm, whereas in the future visions he seems to be in pain and splitting himself apart as well as growing larger. This will also be a great way to showcase the flaws in the Society’s structure, trying to handle Spot through violence only making the problem grow larger. The film will push it's "is it worth it to save one life at the risk of everyone else's" question to it's extreme, by having the characters decide if it's worth it to save Spot, a monster who is destroying the city. It's a no-brainer for Miles to want to save his dad, but it'd be very interesting to see if his mentality extends to someone he has very little incentive to save. That extends to the other characters as well, it'd be an interesting question to see Miguel grapple with as I'm sure he'd be very on board with killing Spot when he sees how much damage he's doing. The ideal conclusion would be for the characters to decide that it's worth it to try, finally unifying the Spider Society and bringing them all back to the real point of their job which is to save people who need it, as well as allowing Miguel to finally put his faith in Miles to know what’s best when it comes to his own nemesis. It'd be nice to see a conclusion where all the damage Spot did is still around and there's a lot left to fix, to leave some lingering consequence while remaining optimistic.
A short answer is that I think Spot should live and be granted a second chance, however that second chance should not be without consequence and the real punishment would be having to build himself back up from nothing again.
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